Question 1

What factors influence countries' decisions to recognize Palestine?

Accepted Answer

Countries may consider diplomatic relations, public opinion, and international law when deciding to recognize Palestine. Economic ties and regional stability also play crucial roles in these decisions.

Question 2

How does recognition of Palestine impact international relations?

Accepted Answer

Recognition can alter diplomatic dynamics, potentially leading to stronger ties with Arab nations and tensions with countries opposing Palestinian statehood. It may also affect negotiations in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Question 3

What is the current status of Palestine's recognition globally?

Accepted Answer

As of now, over 130 UN member states recognize Palestine as a sovereign state. However, key players like the United States and several European nations have yet to grant formal recognition.

Question 4

What is "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). New Zealand leads at 20% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include The Netherlands at 17%, Greece at 15%, Italy at 15%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?"?

Accepted Answer

New Zealand currently leads at 20% implied probability. Behind New Zealand, The Netherlands at 17% and Greece at 15% and Italy at 15% are the next closest contenders. The 9.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: New Zealand: 15¢ on Kalshi, 24¢ on Polymarket. The Netherlands: 17¢ on Kalshi, 16¢ on Polymarket. Greece: 14¢ on Kalshi, 17¢ on Polymarket. Italy: 12¢ on Kalshi, 19¢ on Polymarket. The 9.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that New Zealand is at 20%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 20¢ means the market estimates a 20% probability that New Zealand will be the outcome. Buying one share at 20¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 400% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	15.0%	12¢	18¢	82¢	88¢
Polymarket	24.0%	23¢	25¢	75¢	77¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	13.5%	10¢	17¢	83¢	90¢
Polymarket	16.0%	15¢	17¢	83¢	85¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	10.0%	6¢	14¢	86¢	94¢
Polymarket	17.0%	7¢	27¢	73¢	93¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	13.0%	10¢	16¢	84¢	90¢
Polymarket	18.5%	18¢	19¢	81¢	82¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	11.0%	7¢	15¢	85¢	93¢
Polymarket	10.5%	8¢	13¢	87¢	92¢

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

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