Question 1

What is the Andes virus?

Accepted Answer

The Andes virus is a member of the Hantavirus family, primarily transmitted by rodents. It can cause severe respiratory illness in humans, making monitoring its spread essential.

Question 2

Why is May 2026 significant for the Andes virus?

Accepted Answer

May 2026 is being monitored as a potential peak period for Andes virus cases due to seasonal factors and environmental conditions. This timeframe allows for proactive health measures and research.

Question 3

How do prediction markets work for tracking virus cases?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate information and sentiments from various participants to forecast outcomes, such as virus case reports. They reflect real-time expectations based on available data and expert opinions.

Question 4

What is "Which countries will report an Andes virus case in May 2026?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Which countries will report an Andes virus case in May 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 1 platform (Kalshi). United Kingdom leads at 13% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Germany at 8%, United States at 7%, China at 4%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Which countries will report an Andes virus case in May 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

United Kingdom currently leads at 13% implied probability. Behind United Kingdom, Germany at 8% and United States at 7% and China at 4% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Which countries will report an Andes virus case in May 2026?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi: United Kingdom: 13¢ on Kalshi. Germany: 8¢ on Kalshi. United States: 7¢ on Kalshi. China: 4¢ on Kalshi. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.

Question 7

What does it mean that United Kingdom is at 13%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 13¢ means the market estimates a 13% probability that United Kingdom will be the outcome. Buying one share at 13¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 669% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Which countries will report an Andes virus case in May 2026?

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