Live prediction market odds for Which NBA players will be traded this season?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-06
This market resolved on 2026-02-06. Anthony Davis was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Anthony DavisWINNER | 99% | 100% |
CJ McCollum | 99% | 100% |
James Harden | 99% | 100% |
Jonathan Kuminga | 99% | 100% |
Trae Young | 99% | 100% |
Domantas Sabonis | 1% | 50% |
Giannis Antetokounmpo | 1% | 50% |
Ja Morant | 1% | 50% |
Karl-Anthony Towns | 1% | 50% |
LaMelo Ball | 1% | 50% |
Lauri Markkanen | 1% | 50% |
Michael Porter Jr | 1% | 50% |
Which NBA players will be traded this season was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Anthony Davis led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include CJ McCollum at 100%, James Harden at 100%, Jonathan Kuminga at 100%.
Anthony Davis held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Anthony Davis, CJ McCollum at 100% and James Harden at 100% and Jonathan Kuminga at 100% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Anthony Davis: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. CJ McCollum: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. James Harden: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Jonathan Kuminga: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Anthony Davis would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Anthony Davis
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Anthony Davis is traded before Feb 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The trade must be officially processed and approved by Pro Basketball before Feb 6, 2026 for market to resolve to Yes. If Anthony Davis later fails their physical and/or the trade is rescinded for any reason after being officially processed, the market nonetheless resolves to Yes.
