Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for AZ-09?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the outcome of the House race for AZ-09. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a key focus for both parties leading up to the 2026 elections.
Republican Party leads the “Which party will win the House race for AZ-09” event at 85.5% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 14.3%. A 7.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include demographic trends, candidate popularity, and national political climate. Polling data and campaign funding also play significant roles in shaping market predictions.
The election for the AZ-09 House race is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date is critical as it coincides with the general election, impacting voter turnout.
The AZ-09 race is significant because it could determine which party gains or maintains a majority in the House of Representatives. A shift in control can influence legislative priorities and governance.
Which party will win the House race for AZ-09 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 86% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 14%.
Republican Party currently leads at 86% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 14% are the next closest contenders. The 7.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Republican Party
85.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for AZ-09 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
