Question 1

What factors influence the odds in the FL-18 House race?

Accepted Answer

Key factors include voter demographics, local issues, and national political trends. Polling data and candidate visibility also play significant roles.

Question 2

How does the outcome of FL-18 affect Congress?

Accepted Answer

The FL-18 race is pivotal as it could shift the majority in the House of Representatives. A change in majority can lead to significant changes in legislative priorities.

Question 3

When is the election for the FL-18 House race?

Accepted Answer

The election for the FL-18 House race is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timeline allows for extensive campaigning and voter engagement leading up to the election.

Question 4

What is "Which party will win the House race for FL-18?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Which party will win the House race for FL-18 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican party leads at 93% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic party at 7%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Which party will win the House race for FL-18?"?

Accepted Answer

Republican party currently leads at 93% implied probability. Behind Republican party, Democratic party at 7% are the next closest contenders. The 4.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Which party will win the House race for FL-18?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Republican party: 95¢ on Kalshi, 91¢ on Polymarket. Democratic party: 7¢ on Kalshi, 7¢ on Polymarket. The 4.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Republican party is at 93%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 93¢ means the market estimates a 93% probability that Republican party will be the outcome. Buying one share at 93¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 8% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	94.5%	93¢	96¢	4¢	7¢
Polymarket	90.5%	90¢	91¢	9¢	10¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	5.5%	4¢	7¢	93¢	96¢
Polymarket	7.0%	6¢	8¢	92¢	94¢

Which party will win the House race for FL-18?

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Market Rulebook: Which party will win the House race for FL-18?