Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for MD-02?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the outcome of the House race for MD-02. This race is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, impacting legislative priorities and governance strategies.
Democratic Party leads the “Which party will win the House race for MD-02” event at 92.9% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 6.5%. A 2.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include candidate popularity, party affiliation, and voter turnout trends. Additionally, local issues and national political climate can sway public opinion.
The MD-02 House race is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election, which often sees higher voter engagement.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and can change rapidly based on new information or events.
Which party will win the House race for MD-02 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 93% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 7%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 93% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 7% are the next closest contenders. A 2.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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Democratic Party
92.9% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for MD-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
