Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for MN-01?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House race for MN-01, focusing on which party will secure victory. The outcome could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a critical contest in the 2026 elections.
Democratic party leads the “Which party will win the House race for MN-01” event at 64.8% implied probability, followed by Republican party at 35.8%. A 40.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout trends. Local issues and national political climate also play a significant role.
The MN-01 race is pivotal as it could affect the overall control of the House. Competitive districts like this one are critical for both parties aiming for a majority.
Voting for the MN-01 House race is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date aligns with the general election, which includes various federal and state contests.
Which party will win the House race for MN-01 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic party leads at 65% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican party at 36%.
Democratic party currently leads at 65% implied probability. Behind Democratic party, Republican party at 36% are the next closest contenders. The 40.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Democratic party
64.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Polymarket.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
