Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for NJ-11?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House race for NJ-11. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, with implications for national policy and governance.
Democratic party leads the “Which party will win the House race for NJ-11” event at 91.5% implied probability, followed by Republican party at 7.3%. A 5.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include voter turnout, campaign funding, and the candidates' positions on local and national issues. Additionally, demographic shifts in the district may play a significant role.
The NJ-11 House race is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election, which typically sees higher voter engagement.
The outcome of the NJ-11 race could affect the overall composition of the House of Representatives. A shift in control may lead to changes in legislative priorities and party strategies.
Which party will win the House race for NJ-11 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic party leads at 92% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican party at 7%.
Democratic party currently leads at 92% implied probability. Behind Democratic party, Republican party at 7% are the next closest contenders. The 5.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Democratic party
91.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for NJ-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
