Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for NY-07?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House race for NY-07, set for November 3, 2026. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, impacting legislative priorities and national policies.
Democratic Party leads the “Which party will win the House race for NY-07” event at 95.8% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 4.4%. A 4.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include voter demographics, campaign funding, and national political trends. Local issues and candidate popularity also play significant roles.
The outcome could shift the balance of power in the House of Representatives. This shift may affect legislative agendas and the ability to pass key policies.
Results are expected to be reported on election night, November 3, 2026. However, final certification of results may take several days due to mail-in ballots and counting processes.
Which party will win the House race for NY-07 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 96% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 4%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 96% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 4% are the next closest contenders. The 4.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democratic Party
95.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for NY-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
