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Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for NY-11?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Which party will win the House race for NY-11?

2026-11-03

About This Market

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Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the outcome of the House race for NY-11. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both parties' strategies leading up to the 2026 elections.

Republican Party leads the “Which party will win the House race for NY-11” event at 86.5% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 11.8%. A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
RP
Republican PartyARB
87% Avg
Kalshi86¢
Polymarket88¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
85.5%85¢86¢14¢15¢
PolymarketPolymarket
87.5%87¢88¢12¢13¢
DP
Democratic Party
13% Avg
Kalshi13¢
Polymarket14¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
11.5%10¢13¢87¢90¢
PolymarketPolymarket
13.5%13¢14¢86¢87¢

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the NY-11 House race?

Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout projections. Local issues and national trends also play a significant role in shaping public opinion.

How does the NY-11 race impact national politics?

The outcome could shift the majority in the House, affecting legislative agendas and party dynamics. It serves as a bellwether for broader electoral trends leading into the 2026 elections.

When is the election for the NY-11 House race?

Election Day for the NY-11 House race is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date is critical as it aligns with the general election, where multiple offices will be contested.

What is "Which party will win the House race for NY-11?" and why does it matter?

Which party will win the House race for NY-11 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 87% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 12%.

What is moving the odds on "Which party will win the House race for NY-11?"?

Republican Party currently leads at 87% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 12% are the next closest contenders. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.5%
Platforms2
Candidates2
Leader

Republican Party

86.5% avg

Market Rulebook: Which party will win the House race for NY-11?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NY-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
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