Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the NY-11 House race?

Accepted Answer

Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout projections. Local issues and national trends also play a significant role in shaping public opinion.

Question 2

How does the NY-11 race impact national politics?

Accepted Answer

The outcome could shift the majority in the House, affecting legislative agendas and party dynamics. It serves as a bellwether for broader electoral trends leading into the 2026 elections.

Question 3

When is the election for the NY-11 House race?

Accepted Answer

Election Day for the NY-11 House race is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date is critical as it aligns with the general election, where multiple offices will be contested.

Question 4

What is "Which party will win the House race for NY-11?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Which party will win the House race for NY-11 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican party leads at 71% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic party at 15%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Which party will win the House race for NY-11?"?

Accepted Answer

Republican party currently leads at 71% implied probability. Behind Republican party, Democratic party at 15% are the next closest contenders. The 28.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Which party will win the House race for NY-11?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Republican party: 85¢ on Kalshi, 57¢ on Polymarket. Democratic party: 15¢ on Kalshi, 14¢ on Polymarket. The 28.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Republican party is at 71%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 71¢ means the market estimates a 71% probability that Republican party will be the outcome. Buying one share at 71¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 41% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	84.0%	83¢	85¢	15¢	17¢
Polymarket	56.0%	55¢	57¢	43¢	45¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	14.0%	13¢	15¢	85¢	87¢
Polymarket	13.0%	12¢	14¢	86¢	88¢

Which party will win the House race for NY-11?

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