Question 1

What factors could influence the outcome of the NY-14 House race?

Accepted Answer

Key factors include candidate appeal, local issues, and voter turnout. Additionally, national political trends and party support will also play a significant role.

Question 2

When is the NY-14 House race scheduled?

Accepted Answer

The NY-14 House race is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date aligns with the general election in the United States.

Question 3

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment about the NY-14 race?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants, reflecting their expectations about the race outcome. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in public sentiment based on news or polling data.

Question 4

What is "Which party will win the House race for NY-14?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Which party will win the House race for NY-14 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic party leads at 94% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican party at 6%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Which party will win the House race for NY-14?"?

Accepted Answer

Democratic party currently leads at 94% implied probability. Behind Democratic party, Republican party at 6% are the next closest contenders. The 4.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Which party will win the House race for NY-14?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Democratic party: 96¢ on Kalshi, 92¢ on Polymarket. Republican party: 4¢ on Kalshi, 8¢ on Polymarket. The 4.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Democratic party is at 94%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 94¢ means the market estimates a 94% probability that Democratic party will be the outcome. Buying one share at 94¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 6% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Which party will win the House race for NY-14?

About This Market

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Resolution Oracles

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	95.0%	94¢	96¢	4¢	6¢
Polymarket	91.0%	90¢	92¢	8¢	10¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	3.0%	2¢	4¢	96¢	98¢
Polymarket	7.0%	6¢	8¢	92¢	94¢