Live prediction market odds for Which party will win the House race for PA-12?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the House race for PA-12. The outcome will influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment in a key battleground district ahead of the 2026 elections.
Democratic party leads the “Which party will win the House race for PA-12” event at 92.8% implied probability, followed by Republican party at 5.8%. A 4.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include voter turnout, candidate popularity, and local issues that resonate with constituents. Additionally, national trends and party support can significantly impact the race.
This race is pivotal as it could determine control of the House of Representatives. Given its status as a swing district, results here may signal broader electoral trends.
The election for the PA-12 House seat is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing places it in the context of the general midterm elections, which often see high voter engagement.
Which party will win the House race for PA-12 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic party leads at 93% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican party at 6%.
Democratic party currently leads at 93% implied probability. Behind Democratic party, Republican party at 6% are the next closest contenders. The 4.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Democratic party
92.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for PA-12 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
