Live prediction market odds for Which states will Trump visit before 2027?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-12-31
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the states Trump will visit before 2027. These visits could influence his political capital and campaign strategy as he prepares for future elections.
Maryland leads the “Which states will Trump visit before 2027” event at 99.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Ohio (99.5%), New York (86.3%), Alaska (63.0%), and Hawaii (40.8%). A 28.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Trump's state visits are often influenced by political strategy, campaign events, and local support. Economic conditions and key issues in specific states may also play a role.
Odds in prediction markets are determined by the collective insights and bets of participants. Factors such as polling data, historical trends, and current events can shift these odds.
Trump's visits to specific states can signal his focus on key demographics and electoral strategies. These visits may also impact local political dynamics and voter engagement.
Which states will Trump visit before 2027 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Maryland leads at 99% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Ohio at 100%, New York at 86%, Alaska at 63%.
Maryland currently leads at 99% implied probability. Behind Maryland, Ohio at 100% and New York at 86% and Alaska at 63% are the next closest contenders. The 28.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
KalshiMaryland
99.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.
PolymarketIf U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
