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Live prediction market odds for Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?

2026-08-18

About This Market

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Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor. This primary is crucial as it will determine the candidates who will compete in the general election, impacting the state's political landscape and governance.

Tom Begich leads the “Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor” event at 79.8% implied probability. Other contenders include Bernadette Wilson (68.3%), Click Bishop (43.8%), Matt Claman (33.8%), and Dave Bronson (33.0%). A 7.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms
TB
Tom BegichARB
80% Avg
Kalshi79¢
Polymarket84¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
76.0%73¢79¢21¢27¢
PolymarketPolymarket
83.5%83¢84¢16¢17¢
BW
Bernadette Wilson
69% Avg
Kalshi69¢
Polymarket73¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
67.5%66¢69¢31¢34¢
PolymarketPolymarket
70.5%68¢73¢27¢32¢
CB
Click Bishop
45% Avg
Kalshi44¢
Polymarket53¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
42.0%40¢44¢56¢60¢
PolymarketPolymarket
47.5%42¢53¢47¢58¢
MC
Matt Claman
34% Avg
Kalshi34¢
Polymarket35¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
33.5%33¢34¢66¢67¢
PolymarketPolymarket
34.5%34¢35¢65¢66¢
MC
Matt Claman
34% Avg
Kalshi34¢
Polymarket35¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
33.5%33¢34¢66¢67¢
PolymarketPolymarket
34.5%34¢35¢65¢66¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Tom Begich

Tom Begich is a Democratic candidate for the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. He served as Minority Leader of the Alaska Senate from 2019 to 2023. His legislative experience and leadership roles make him a significant contender in Alaska's upcoming gubernatorial race.

About Bernadette Wilson

Bernadette Wilson is a Republican candidate for Alaska governor in the 2026 election. She is the founder and CEO of Denali Disposal, a waste management company. She is relevant to this prediction market as a contender in Alaska's top-four primary for governor.

About Click Bishop

Click Bishop is a Republican politician and former Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development. He served in the Alaska Senate from 2013 to 2025, representing Interior Alaska. He is currently a candidate in Alaska's top-four primary for Governor.

About Matt Claman

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of Alaska's top-four primary?

Alaska's top-four primary allows voters to select their preferred candidates regardless of party affiliation. This system aims to promote broader representation and can lead to unexpected outcomes in the general election.

When is the Alaska gubernatorial primary scheduled?

The Alaska gubernatorial primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. This date is significant as it sets the stage for the candidates who will compete in the subsequent general election.

How does the top-four primary affect candidate selection?

In a top-four primary, the four candidates with the most votes advance to the general election, regardless of their party. This format encourages a more diverse range of candidates and can alter traditional party dynamics.

What is "Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?" and why does it matter?

Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Tom Begich leads at 80% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Bernadette Wilson at 68%, Click Bishop at 44%, Matt Claman at 34%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?"?

Tom Begich currently leads at 80% implied probability. Behind Tom Begich, Bernadette Wilson at 68% and Click Bishop at 44% and Matt Claman at 34% are the next closest contenders. The 7.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Attorney General of the United Statesthe Federal Election Commission
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread7.5%
Platforms2
Candidates12
Leader

Tom Begich

79.8% avg

Market Rulebook: Who will advance from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Dave Bronson advances to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Attorney General of the United Statesthe Federal Election Commission
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
Matt Claman is a Democratic member of the Alaska State Senate, representing District H since January 2023. He previously served in the Alaska House of Representatives from 2015 to 2023 and was Acting Mayor of Anchorage in 2009. Claman is running for governor in Alaska's top-four primary, aiming to leverage his extensive legislative experience to lead the state.

About Dave Bronson

Dave Bronson is a Republican candidate for Alaska governor in the 2026 election. He served as Anchorage's mayor from 2021 to 2024 and managed Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport from January to September 2025. His gubernatorial bid is significant due to his prior leadership roles in Alaska's largest city and major airport.

About Treg Taylor

Treg Taylor is a former Attorney General of Alaska, having served from 2021 to 2025. He resigned in August 2025 to run for governor in the 2026 election. His tenure as Attorney General is relevant to this prediction market.

About Nancy Dahlstrom

Nancy Dahlstrom is the current Lieutenant Governor of Alaska, serving since December 2022. She previously served as Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Corrections from 2018 to 2022. She is a candidate in Alaska's top-four primary for Governor.

About Matt Heilala

Matt Heilala is a podiatrist and member of the Alaska State Medical Board. He was appointed to the board in 2021 by Governor Mike Dunleavy. He is a candidate in Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial election.

About Shelley Hughes

Shelley Hughes is a Republican candidate for Governor of Alaska. She served as a state senator from Palmer, Alaska, from 2017 until her resignation in November 2025 to focus on her gubernatorial campaign. Her extensive legislative experience and leadership roles make her a significant contender in Alaska's top-four primary for Governor.

About Edna DeVries

Edna DeVries is the current mayor of Matanuska-Susitna Borough, a position she has held since January 2021. She previously served as mayor of Palmer, Alaska, from December 2016 to November 2021, and as a member of the Alaska State Senate from 1984 to 1988. She is a candidate in the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election, aiming to succeed term-limited Governor Mike Dunleavy.