Prediction Hunt logoPrediction Hunt
MarketsArbitrageSmart MoneyTrendingToolsAPIPricing
Live
Prediction Hunt

Compare prediction market odds across every platform. Find the best prices and track smart money.

Markets

  • Elections
  • Sports
  • Crypto
  • Entertainment
  • US Presidential Election Hub
  • Archive

Tools

  • Trending
  • Arbitrage Scanner
  • Smart Money Feed
  • Calculators
  • News
  • Blog

Community

  • Discord
  • Twitter / X
  • Tools
  • About
  • Affiliate Program
  • API Terms of Service

This information is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always verify resolution criteria and platform rules before trading.

MarketsArbWhalesTrending

Live prediction market odds for Who will advance from the California Governor primary?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.

Discord
Follow on X

Kalshi / Polymarket

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

2026-06-02

About This Market

Share

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will advance from the California Governor primary. This primary is crucial as it sets the stage for the general election, influencing party dynamics and candidate viability in a key state.

Steve Hilton leads the “Who will advance from the California Governor primary” event at 82.8% implied probability. Other contenders include Tom Steyer (68.3%), Xavier Becerra (36.8%), Matt Mahan (9.6%), and Chad Bianco (8.4%). A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms
SH
Steve Hilton
83% Avg
Kalshi83¢
Polymarket84¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
82.5%82¢83¢17¢18¢
PolymarketPolymarket
83.0%82¢84¢16¢18¢
TS
Tom SteyerARB
68% Avg
Kalshi67¢
Polymarket71¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
66.5%66¢67¢33¢34¢
PolymarketPolymarket
70.0%69¢71¢29¢31¢
XB
Xavier Becerra
37% Avg
Kalshi36¢
Polymarket40¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
35.5%35¢36¢64¢65¢
PolymarketPolymarket
38.0%36¢40¢60¢64¢
MM
Matt Mahan
10% Avg
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket11¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
9.5%9¢10¢90¢92¢
PolymarketPolymarket
10.0%9¢11¢89¢91¢
CB
Chad Bianco
9% Avg
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket9¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
9.0%8¢10¢90¢92¢
PolymarketPolymarket
8.0%7¢9¢91¢93¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Steve Hilton

Steve Hilton is a Republican candidate for California Governor in the 2026 election. He previously served as director of strategy for British Prime Minister David Cameron from 2010 to 2012. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is actively campaigning for the gubernatorial position.

About Tom Steyer

Tom Steyer is a Democratic candidate for California governor in the 2026 election. He previously ran for president in 2020 and founded the climate-focused investment firm Galvanize Climate Solutions. His gubernatorial campaign focuses on reducing electricity bills and building affordable housing.

About Xavier Becerra

Xavier Becerra is a candidate for California governor in the 2026 election. He previously served as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services from 2021 to 2025. His extensive experience in public service makes him a significant contender in the upcoming gubernatorial race.

About Matt Mahan

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the California Governor primary?

The California Governor primary is a pivotal event that determines which candidates will compete in the general election. It can significantly influence party strategies and voter turnout.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment about the primary?

Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants, reflecting their expectations about which candidates will advance. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in public opinion or new developments in the campaign.

What factors can impact the odds in this primary race?

Factors such as polling data, candidate debates, endorsements, and campaign funding can all influence the odds. Additionally, voter engagement and demographic trends in California play a critical role.

What is "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" and why does it matter?

Who will advance from the California Governor primary is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Steve Hilton leads at 83% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Tom Steyer at 68%, Xavier Becerra at 37%, Matt Mahan at 10%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?"?

Steve Hilton currently leads at 83% implied probability. Behind Steve Hilton, Tom Steyer at 68% and Xavier Becerra at 37% and Matt Mahan at 10% are the next closest contenders. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Automate This Market

Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Who will advance from the California Governor primary?” event. All for free.

As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et

Used by builders and traders in our 2K+ Discord community

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Attorney General of the United Statesthe Federal Election Commission
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.5%
Platforms

Market Rulebook: Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Xavier Becerra advances to the general election for California governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Attorney General of the United Statesthe Federal Election Commission
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
Matt Mahan is the current Mayor of San Jose, California, serving since January 2023. Prior to this, he was a member of the San Jose City Council from 2021 to 2023. He is running in the 2026 California gubernatorial election.

About Chad Bianco

Chad Bianco is the Sheriff of Riverside County, California, overseeing law enforcement operations. He was elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022. He is running for governor in the 2026 California gubernatorial election.

About Katie Porter

Katie Porter is a candidate in the 2026 California gubernatorial race. She previously served as a U.S. Representative from California's 45th and 47th congressional districts from 2019 to 2025. Her experience in Congress and her candidacy for governor make her a key contender in this election.

About Antonio Villaraigosa

Antonio Villaraigosa is a former Mayor of Los Angeles and is currently running for California governor in the 2026 election. He served as the 41st Mayor of Los Angeles from 2005 to 2013. His extensive political experience and leadership in Los Angeles make him a significant contender in the gubernatorial race.

About Betty Yee

Betty Yee is a candidate for California governor in the 2026 election. She served as California State Controller from 2015 to 2023. Her extensive experience in state fiscal management and public service makes her a significant contender in the gubernatorial race.

About Tony Thurmond

Tony Thurmond is the State Superintendent of Public Instruction for California. He previously served in the California State Assembly and on the Richmond City Council. He is running for governor in the 2026 election.

About Eric Swalwell

Eric Swalwell is a Democratic member of the U.S. House of Representatives, representing California's 14th congressional district. He previously served as a House manager during President Donald Trump's 2021 impeachment trial. He is currently a candidate in the 2026 California gubernatorial election.

About Ethan Agarwal

Ethan Agarwal is a tech entrepreneur and Democratic candidate for California's 17th Congressional District. He previously co-founded fintech startup The Coterie and audio-focused fitness app Aaptiv. Agarwal is challenging incumbent Rep. Ro Khanna, focusing on issues like stock trading by family members and support for a potential 'billionaire tax' ballot measure.
2
Candidates11
Leader

Steve Hilton

82.8% avg