Live prediction market odds for Who will advance in the CA-48 primary?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Brandon Riker was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 2%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking who will advance in the CA-48 primary. The outcome will influence party dynamics and candidate strategies leading up to the general election, making it a critical contest in California's political landscape.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Brandon RikerWINNER | 2% | 95% | 1% |
Marni von Wilpert | 99% | 39% | — |
Ammar Campa-Najjar | 1% |
The CA-48 primary is crucial as it determines which candidates will represent their parties in the general election. The results can shape party strategies and influence voter turnout.
Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the outcomes of events like the CA-48 primary, reflecting collective expectations. Prices fluctuate based on new information, such as polling data and candidate performances.
Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising success, endorsements, and public opinion polls. Changes in these factors can lead to rapid shifts in market sentiment.
Who will advance in the CA-48 primary was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Brandon Riker led the market at 33% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Marni von Wilpert at 69%, Ammar Campa-Najjar at 8%, Jim Desmond at 66%.
Brandon Riker held the lead at 33% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Brandon Riker, Marni von Wilpert at 69% and Ammar Campa-Najjar at 8% and Jim Desmond at 66% were the next closest contenders. The 98.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Brandon Riker
32.6% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Brandon Riker advances in the 2026 CA-48 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
| 15% |
| — |
Jim Desmond | 99% | 1% | 99% |
