Question 1

What is the significance of the Paris mayoral election?

Accepted Answer

The Paris mayoral election determines the leadership of France's capital, impacting local governance and policy decisions. The elected mayor will influence urban development, public services, and social issues.

Question 2

How do prediction markets work in this context?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the likelihood of various candidates advancing in the election. Prices reflect collective expectations based on polling data, political trends, and public sentiment.

Question 3

What factors influence the odds in this election?

Accepted Answer

Odds can be affected by candidate popularity, campaign strategies, and current events leading up to the election. Additionally, voter turnout and endorsements play crucial roles in shaping market perceptions.

Question 4

What was "Who will advance in the Paris mayoral election?" and why did it matter?

Accepted Answer

Who will advance in the Paris mayoral election was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Emmanuel Grégoire led the market at 91% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Rachida Dati at 56%, Pierre-Yves Bournazel at 48%, Sophia Chikirou at 45%.

Question 5

What moved the odds on "Who will advance in the Paris mayoral election?"?

Accepted Answer

Emmanuel Grégoire held the lead at 91% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Emmanuel Grégoire, Rachida Dati at 56% and Pierre-Yves Bournazel at 48% and Sophia Chikirou at 45% were the next closest contenders. The 82.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What were the final odds for "Who will advance in the Paris mayoral election?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Emmanuel Grégoire: 98¢ on Kalshi, 85¢ on Polymarket. Rachida Dati: 98¢ on Kalshi, 15¢ on Polymarket. Pierre-Yves Bournazel: 46¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Sophia Chikirou: 40¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 82.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What did 91% odds for Emmanuel Grégoire mean?

Accepted Answer

A price of 91¢ meant the market estimated a 91% chance that Emmanuel Grégoire would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 91¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 10% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.

Candidate
Emmanuel GrégoireWINNER	98%	85%
Rachida Dati	98%	15%
Pierre-Yves Bournazel	46%	50%
Sophia Chikirou	40%	50%
Sarah Knafo	51%	0%

Emmanuel Grégoire Wins: Who will advance in the Paris mayoral election?

About This Market

Price History

Final Closing Odds

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Market Rulebook: Who will advance in the Paris mayoral election?