Question 1

What is the role of a Fed Governor?

Accepted Answer

A Fed Governor plays a key role in shaping U.S. monetary policy and overseeing the Federal Reserve System. They contribute to the formulation of policies that influence interest rates and banking regulations.

Question 2

How does the nomination process work?

Accepted Answer

The President nominates candidates for Fed Governor, who must then be confirmed by the Senate. This process involves hearings where nominees are questioned about their views on economic policy.

Question 3

What factors influence the nomination odds?

Accepted Answer

Nomination odds can be influenced by political alignments, economic conditions, and the nominees' previous experience and public statements. Market reactions may also shift based on broader economic indicators and legislative priorities.

Question 4

What is "Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 1 platform (Kalshi). Stephen Miran leads at 22% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Kevin Hassett at 12%, Michelle Bowman at 10%, Marc Sumerlin at 5%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

Stephen Miran currently leads at 22% implied probability. Behind Stephen Miran, Kevin Hassett at 12% and Michelle Bowman at 10% and Marc Sumerlin at 5% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi: Stephen Miran: 22¢ on Kalshi. Kevin Hassett: 12¢ on Kalshi. Michelle Bowman: 10¢ on Kalshi. Marc Sumerlin: 5¢ on Kalshi. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.

Question 7

What does it mean that Stephen Miran is at 22%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 22¢ means the market estimates a 22% probability that Stephen Miran will be the outcome. Buying one share at 22¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 355% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?

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