Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the Democratic nominee in Wisconsin?

Accepted Answer

Factors include polling data, candidate endorsements, and fundraising capabilities. Additionally, the political climate and voter sentiment in Wisconsin will play a crucial role.

Question 2

When is the primary election for the Democratic nominee?

Accepted Answer

The primary election for the Democratic nominee in Wisconsin is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This date is critical as it determines who will represent the party in the general election.

Question 3

How do prediction markets work for political events?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various outcomes, providing insights into public sentiment.

Question 4

What is "Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Mandela Barnes leads at 52% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include David Crowley at 51%, Sara Rodriguez at 47%, Francesca Hong at 38%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin in 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

Mandela Barnes currently leads at 52% implied probability. Behind Mandela Barnes, David Crowley at 51% and Sara Rodriguez at 47% and Francesca Hong at 38% are the next closest contenders. The 99.4% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin in 2026?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Mandela Barnes: 43¢ on Kalshi, 60¢ on Polymarket. David Crowley: 3¢ on Kalshi, 99¢ on Polymarket. Sara Rodriguez: 12¢ on Kalshi, 82¢ on Polymarket. Francesca Hong: 37¢ on Kalshi, 39¢ on Polymarket. The 99.4% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Mandela Barnes is at 52%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 52¢ means the market estimates a 52% probability that Mandela Barnes will be the outcome. Buying one share at 52¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 92% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	42.5%	42¢	43¢	57¢	58¢
Polymarket	60.0%	54¢	66¢	34¢	46¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	3.5%	3¢	4¢	96¢	97¢
Polymarket	99.0%	98¢	100¢	0¢	2¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	11.5%	11¢	12¢	88¢	89¢
Polymarket	82.0%	75¢	89¢	11¢	25¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	34.5%	32¢	37¢	63¢	68¢
Polymarket	39.5%	37¢	42¢	59¢	63¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.0%	0¢	4¢	96¢	100¢
Polymarket	1.0%	0¢	2¢	98¢	100¢

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin in 2026?

About This Market

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About Mandela Barnes

About David Crowley

About Sara Rodriguez

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Market Rulebook: Who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin in 2026?