Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Democratic nominee for IL-09 in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-01
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Democratic nominee for IL-09 in 2026. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect broader trends within the Democratic Party leading up to the election.
Daniel Biss is priced at 99.5% implied probability for the “Who will be the Democratic nominee for IL-09 in 2026” event. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread.
Factors include candidate fundraising, endorsements, and polling data. Additionally, local issues and voter sentiment can shift support among potential nominees.
Illinois uses a closed primary system, meaning only registered party members can vote in the Democratic primary. Candidates must gather a certain number of signatures to qualify for the ballot.
IL-09 is considered a Democratic stronghold, making the primary crucial for candidates aiming to secure the nomination. The outcome can also impact overall Democratic strategies in the state.
Who will be the Democratic nominee for IL-09 in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Daniel Biss leads at 100% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Daniel Biss currently leads at 100% implied probability. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Daniel Biss wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IL-09 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Daniel Biss
99.5% avg
