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Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Democratic nominee for MA-06 in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Who will be the Democratic nominee for MA-06 in 2026?

2026-05-01

About This Market

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Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Democratic nominee for MA-06 in 2026. This race is significant as it will influence the party's strategy and representation in Congress, especially in a critical election year.

Dan Koh leads the “Who will be the Democratic nominee for MA-06 in 2026” event at 68.8% implied probability. Other contenders include Dominick Pangallo (2.9%), and Seth Moulton (0.8%). A 6.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms
DK
Dan KohARB
69% Avg
Kalshi74¢
Polymarket66¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
72.0%70¢74¢26¢30¢
PolymarketPolymarket
65.5%65¢66¢34¢35¢
DP
Dominick Pangallo
3% Avg
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
3.0%0¢6¢94¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.5%1¢4¢96¢99¢
SM
Seth Moulton
1% Avg
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket1¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.5%0¢3¢97¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Dan Koh

Dan Koh is a Democratic candidate for Massachusetts' 6th Congressional District in the 2026 election. He previously served as chief of staff to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh and in senior roles in the Biden administration, including chief of staff at the U.S. Department of Labor. His extensive political experience and strong grassroots support make him a prominent contender in the race.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Democratic nominee in MA-06?

Odds can be affected by candidate endorsements, fundraising totals, and polling data as the election approaches. Additionally, shifts in voter sentiment and party dynamics play a crucial role.

How does the Democratic primary process work in Massachusetts?

Massachusetts uses a closed primary system, meaning only registered party members can vote in their party's primary. Candidates typically campaign vigorously to secure endorsements and mobilize their voter base.

What is the significance of the MA-06 district in elections?

MA-06 is a competitive district that can impact the balance of power in Congress. Winning this seat is vital for the Democratic Party to maintain or expand its influence in the House.

What is "Who will be the Democratic nominee for MA-06 in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Who will be the Democratic nominee for MA-06 in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Dan Koh leads at 69% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Dominick Pangallo at 3%, Seth Moulton at 1%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will be the Democratic nominee for MA-06 in 2026?"?

Dan Koh currently leads at 69% implied probability. Behind Dan Koh, Dominick Pangallo at 3% and Seth Moulton at 1% are the next closest contenders. The 6.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracledemocrats.orgConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
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Market Rulebook: Who will be the Democratic nominee for MA-06 in 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Dan Koh wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MA-6 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracledemocrats.orgConsensus of Sources
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
6.5%
Platforms2
Candidates3
Leader

Dan Koh

68.8% avg