Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-01
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Democratic nominee for MN-02. This contest is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Minnesota's congressional delegation and impact national legislative priorities.
Matt Little leads the “Who will be the Democratic nominee for MN-02” event at 47.3% implied probability, followed by Matt Klein at 34.8%. A 15.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate endorsements, and fundraising efforts are critical in shaping the odds. Additionally, voter sentiment and demographic trends in the district play a significant role.
The primary election for MN-02 is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This date is pivotal as it determines the Democratic candidate who will advance to the general election.
The nominee's success could shift the balance of power in Congress, especially if the seat is competitive. A strong Democratic presence in Minnesota may also influence national policy discussions and party strategies.
Who will be the Democratic nominee for MN-02 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Matt Little leads at 47% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Matt Klein at 35%.
Matt Little currently leads at 47% implied probability. Behind Matt Little, Matt Klein at 35% are the next closest contenders. The 15.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Matt Little wins the nomination for the Democratic (DFL) Party to contest the 2026 MN-2 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Matt Little
47.3% avg
