Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the Democratic nominee in NY-12?

Accepted Answer

Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and endorsements. Polling data and voter sentiment also play crucial roles in shaping market predictions.

Question 2

When is the primary election for NY-12?

Accepted Answer

The primary election for New York's 12th congressional district is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This date is critical as it determines the Democratic nominee for the general election.

Question 3

How does the Democratic nominee for NY-12 affect national politics?

Accepted Answer

The nominee's position can impact legislative agendas and party strategies at the national level. A strong candidate may also influence voter turnout and engagement in the general election.

Question 4

What is "Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Alex Bores leads at 49% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Micah Lasher at 37%, Jack Schlossberg at 16%, Lina Khan at 13%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?"?

Accepted Answer

Alex Bores currently leads at 49% implied probability. Behind Alex Bores, Micah Lasher at 37% and Jack Schlossberg at 16% and Lina Khan at 13% are the next closest contenders. The 24.6% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Alex Bores: 47¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Micah Lasher: 38¢ on Kalshi, 36¢ on Polymarket. Jack Schlossberg: 16¢ on Kalshi, 16¢ on Polymarket. Lina Khan: 0¢ on Kalshi, 25¢ on Polymarket. The 24.6% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Alex Bores is at 49%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 49¢ means the market estimates a 49% probability that Alex Bores will be the outcome. Buying one share at 49¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 104% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	47.0%	46¢	48¢	52¢	54¢
Polymarket	47.0%	44¢	50¢	50¢	55¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	38.0%	37¢	39¢	61¢	63¢
Polymarket	35.5%	34¢	37¢	63¢	66¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	15.5%	13¢	18¢	82¢	87¢
Polymarket	15.5%	15¢	16¢	84¢	85¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	25.0%	20¢	30¢	70¢	80¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	15.0%	10¢	20¢	80¢	90¢

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?

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Market Rulebook: Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?