Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the Democratic nominee in NY-12?

Accepted Answer

Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and endorsements. Polling data and voter sentiment also play crucial roles in shaping market predictions.

Question 2

When is the primary election for NY-12?

Accepted Answer

The primary election for New York's 12th congressional district is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This date is critical as it determines the Democratic nominee for the general election.

Question 3

How does the Democratic nominee for NY-12 affect national politics?

Accepted Answer

The nominee's position can impact legislative agendas and party strategies at the national level. A strong candidate may also influence voter turnout and engagement in the general election.

Question 4

What is "Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Micah Lasher leads at 52% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Brad Lander at 40%, Alex Bores at 28%, Jack Schlossberg at 19%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?"?

Accepted Answer

Micah Lasher currently leads at 52% implied probability. Behind Micah Lasher, Brad Lander at 40% and Alex Bores at 28% and Jack Schlossberg at 19% are the next closest contenders. The 79.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Micah Lasher: 49¢ on Kalshi, 55¢ on Polymarket. Brad Lander: 1¢ on Kalshi, 80¢ on Polymarket. Alex Bores: 31¢ on Kalshi, 26¢ on Polymarket. Jack Schlossberg: 21¢ on Kalshi, 17¢ on Polymarket. The 79.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Micah Lasher is at 52%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 52¢ means the market estimates a 52% probability that Micah Lasher will be the outcome. Buying one share at 52¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 92% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	48.5%	48¢	49¢	51¢	52¢
Polymarket	54.5%	53¢	56¢	44¢	47¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	80.0%	70¢	90¢	10¢	30¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	30.5%	30¢	31¢	69¢	70¢
Polymarket	27.0%	25¢	29¢	71¢	75¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	20.5%	20¢	21¢	79¢	80¢
Polymarket	17.5%	16¢	19¢	81¢	84¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	35.0%	20¢	50¢	50¢	80¢

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?

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Market Rulebook: Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?