Question 1

What factors influence the odds for the Democratic nominee in NY-12?

Accepted Answer

Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and endorsements. Polling data and voter sentiment also play crucial roles in shaping market predictions.

Question 2

When is the primary election for NY-12?

Accepted Answer

The primary election for New York's 12th congressional district is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This date is critical as it determines the Democratic nominee for the general election.

Question 3

How does the Democratic nominee for NY-12 affect national politics?

Accepted Answer

The nominee's position can impact legislative agendas and party strategies at the national level. A strong candidate may also influence voter turnout and engagement in the general election.

Question 4

What is "Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Andrew Cuomo leads at 25% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Cynthia Nixon at 25%, Micah Lasher at 50%, Alex Bores at 41%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?"?

Accepted Answer

Andrew Cuomo currently leads at 25% implied probability. Behind Andrew Cuomo, Cynthia Nixon at 25% and Micah Lasher at 50% and Alex Bores at 41% are the next closest contenders. The 99.8% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Andrew Cuomo: 0¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Cynthia Nixon: 0¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Micah Lasher: 51¢ on Kalshi, 49¢ on Polymarket. Alex Bores: 44¢ on Kalshi, 39¢ on Polymarket. The 99.8% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Andrew Cuomo is at 25%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 25¢ means the market estimates a 25% probability that Andrew Cuomo will be the outcome. Buying one share at 25¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 300% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	43.5%	42¢	45¢	55¢	58¢
Polymarket	39.0%	34¢	44¢	56¢	66¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	6.5%	6¢	7¢	94¢	94¢
Polymarket	8.0%	6¢	10¢	90¢	94¢

Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?

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Market Rulebook: Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?