Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-01
Market Summary
In the latest prediction market odds for Who will be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?, Micah Lasher leads with an average implied probability of 56.3%. Top contenders trailing the frontrunner include Alex Bores (26.3%) and Jack Schlossberg (11.3%). Traders monitoring this market will find an active arbitrage window with a 1.5% spread across platforms.
Market Narrative // Why the odds are moving
New York Assembly member Alex Bores, running for the Democratic nomination in NY-12, is receiving significant financial support from Public First Action, an Anthropic-backed PAC spending $450,000 to boost his campaign, while facing $1.1 million in attacks from an opposing AI industry super PAC. This heavy PAC involvement directly affects the odds of Bores securing the nomination..
Sources: TechCrunch
Resolution
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Micah Lasher
56.3% avg
