Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Democratic nominee for PA-03 in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-01
This market resolved on 2026-05-01. Chris Rabb was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 84%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Democratic nomination for Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district in 2026. This race is crucial as it could impact the balance of power in Congress and reflect broader trends in voter sentiment within the state.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Chris RabbWINNER | 69% | 100% |
David Oxman | 0% | 50% |
Gabriel Caceres | 0% | 50% |
Morgan Cephas |
Factors include candidate fundraising, endorsements, and polling data. Local issues and voter demographics also play a significant role in shaping the race.
Pennsylvania uses a closed primary system, meaning only registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic primary. Candidates must secure a majority of delegate support to win the nomination.
Winning PA-03 could help the Democratic Party maintain or increase its representation in Congress. The outcome may also signal shifts in voter priorities and party alignment in the region.
Who will be the Democratic nominee for PA-03 in 2026 was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Chris Rabb led the market at 84% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include David Oxman at 25%, Gabriel Caceres at 25%, Morgan Cephas at 25%.
Chris Rabb held the lead at 84% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Chris Rabb, David Oxman at 25% and Gabriel Caceres at 25% and Morgan Cephas at 25% were the next closest contenders. The 50.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Sharif Street wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 PA-3 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
| 50% |
Robin Toldens | 0% | 50% |
Sharif Street | 31% | 50% |
Ala Stanford | 9% | 50% |
Chris Rabb
84.3% avg
