Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-01
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Democratic nominee in the NJ-11 special election set for 2026. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in the House and reflect broader trends in voter sentiment leading up to the election.
Analilia Mejia is priced at 99.5% implied probability for the “Who will be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special in 2026” event. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread.
The NJ-11 special election is crucial as it could alter the Democratic representation in the House. It also serves as a barometer for voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the likelihood of various candidates winning the Democratic nomination. Prices fluctuate based on new information, such as endorsements or polling data.
Factors include candidate fundraising, public opinion polls, and media coverage. Additionally, local and national political dynamics may shift as the election date approaches.
Who will be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Analilia Mejia leads at 100% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Analilia Mejia currently leads at 100% implied probability. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Analilia Mejia wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Special NJ-11 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 special election, scheduled for April 16, 2026. The Democratic primary will take place on February 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Analilia Mejia
99.5% avg
