Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-01
This market resolved on 2026-05-01. Analilia Mejia was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Democratic nominee in the NJ-11 special election set for 2026. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in the House and reflect broader trends in voter sentiment leading up to the election.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Analilia MejiaWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Anna Lee Williams | 1% | 50% |
Brendan Gill | 1% | 50% |
Cammie Croft |
The NJ-11 special election is crucial as it could alter the Democratic representation in the House. It also serves as a barometer for voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the likelihood of various candidates winning the Democratic nomination. Prices fluctuate based on new information, such as endorsements or polling data.
Factors include candidate fundraising, public opinion polls, and media coverage. Additionally, local and national political dynamics may shift as the election date approaches.
Who will be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special in 2026 was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Analilia Mejia led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Anna Lee Williams at 26%, Brendan Gill at 26%, Cammie Croft at 26%.
Analilia Mejia held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Analilia Mejia, Anna Lee Williams at 26% and Brendan Gill at 26% and Cammie Croft at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Brendan Gill wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Special NJ-11 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 special election, scheduled for April 16, 2026. The Democratic primary will take place on February 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
| 50% |
Dean Dafis | 1% | 50% |
Jeff Grayzel | 1% | 50% |
John Bartlett | 1% | 50% |
Justin Strickland | 1% | 50% |
Marc Chaaban | 1% | 50% |
Tahesha Way | 1% | 50% |
Tom Malinowski | 1% | 50% |
Zach Beecher | 1% | 50% |
Analilia Mejia
99.5% avg
