Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Democratic nominee for TX-28 in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-01
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Democratic nominee for TX-28 in 2026. This contest is pivotal as it will influence the party's strategy and chances in a key Texas district during the upcoming election cycle.
Henry Cuellar is priced at 99.0% implied probability for the “Who will be the Democratic nominee for TX-28 in 2026” event. A 2.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and endorsements. Additionally, demographic shifts and local issues will play a significant role in shaping voter preferences.
Texas employs a closed primary system, meaning only registered party members can vote in the primary elections. Candidates must secure a majority of votes to win the nomination, often leading to competitive races.
TX-28 is considered a bellwether district that can sway the balance of power in Congress. Winning this seat is crucial for the Democratic Party's efforts to maintain or regain control in the House.
Who will be the Democratic nominee for TX-28 in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Henry Cuellar leads at 99% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Henry Cuellar currently leads at 99% implied probability. A 2.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Henry Cuellar wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 TX-28 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Henry Cuellar
99.0% avg
