About This Market
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will be the first Democrat to announce a presidential run for the 2028 election. This event is crucial as early announcements can shape campaign dynamics and influence voter sentiment leading up to the primaries.
Gavin Newsom leads the “Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run” event at 23.7% implied probability. Other contenders include Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (9.1%), Jon Ossoff (7.8%), Kamala Harris (12.9%), and Josh Shapiro (8.0%). A 23.8% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
