Live prediction market odds for Who will be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-12-31
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the next Supreme Leader of Iran. This event is crucial as it will determine the future direction of Iran's domestic and foreign policies, impacting regional stability and international relations.
Mojtaba Khamenei is priced at 99.5% implied probability for the “Who will be the next Supreme Leader of Iran” event. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread.
Factors include political maneuvering within Iran's ruling elite, public sentiment, and external pressures from international actors. Additionally, health and age of the current leadership can impact succession dynamics.
The Supreme Leader holds significant power over all branches of government, military, and media in Iran. This position shapes both domestic policies and international relations, making the succession critical.
The next Supreme Leader is expected to be appointed following the current leader's passing or retirement, with speculation around potential candidates increasing as the date approaches. The transition process can be influenced by internal party politics and public opinion.
Who will be the next Supreme Leader of Iran is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Mojtaba Khamenei leads at 100% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Mojtaba Khamenei currently leads at 100% implied probability. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the first new person to hold the position of Supreme Leader of Iran after Issuance is Mojtaba Khamenei, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Supreme Leader, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. For countries where the equivalent position has a different title (e.g., Chancellor in Germany), the specific title will be used. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation.
PolymarketThe Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts. This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei. Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market. If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”. Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme Leader or a direct constitutional equivalent will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mojtaba Khamenei
99.5% avg
