Prediction Hunt logoPrediction Hunt
MarketsArbitrageSmart MoneyTrendingPaper TradingAPIPricing
Live
Prediction Hunt

Compare prediction market odds across every platform. Find the best prices and track smart money.

Markets

  • Elections
  • Sports
  • Crypto
  • Entertainment
  • US Presidential Election Hub
  • Archive

Tools

  • Trending
  • Arbitrage Scanner
  • Smart Money Feed
  • Calculators
  • News
  • Blog

Community

  • Discord
  • Twitter / X
  • Tools
  • About
  • Affiliate Program
  • API Terms of Service

This information is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always verify resolution criteria and platform rules before trading.

MarketsArbWhalesTrending

Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Republican nominee for FL-19?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.

Discord
Follow on X

Kalshi / Polymarket

Who will be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

2026-05-01

About This Market

Share

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Republican nominee for FL-19. This election is pivotal as it could influence party dynamics and voter turnout in the upcoming general election.

Catalina Lauf leads the “Who will be the Republican nominee for FL-19” event at 40.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Madison Cawthorn (11.6%), Jim Oberweis (10.3%), Spencer Roach (4.6%), and Bob Rommel (1.3%). A 5.2% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
CL
Catalina LaufARB
42% Avg
Kalshi46¢
Polymarket40¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
43.5%41¢46¢54¢59¢
PolymarketPolymarket
39.5%39¢40¢60¢61¢
MC
Madison Cawthorn
11% Avg
Kalshi12¢
Polymarket13¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
11.0%10¢12¢88¢90¢
PolymarketPolymarket
11.5%10¢13¢87¢90¢
JO
Jim Oberweis
9% Avg
Kalshi13¢
Polymarket12¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
10.0%7¢13¢87¢93¢
PolymarketPolymarket
8.5%5¢12¢88¢95¢
SR
Spencer Roach
5% Avg
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
3.0%0¢6¢94¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
7.5%5¢10¢90¢96¢
BR
Bob Rommel
2% Avg
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
2.0%0¢4¢96¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.5%1¢4¢96¢99¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Catalina Lauf

Catalina Lauf is the founder and executive director of Defense of Freedom PAC. She previously served as a special advisor in the U.S. Department of Commerce during the Trump Administration. She is relevant to this prediction market as a potential candidate for the Republican nomination in Florida's 19th Congressional District.

About Madison Cawthorn

Madison Cawthorn is a Republican politician running for Florida's 19th Congressional District in the 2026 elections. He previously served as the U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 11th district from 2021 to 2023. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is a declared candidate in the Republican primary for FL-19.

About Jim Oberweis

Jim Oberweis is a Republican candidate for Florida's 19th Congressional District in the 2026 election. He served as a member of the Illinois State Senate from 2013 to 2021. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is actively campaigning for the Republican nomination in FL-19.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Republican nominee in FL-19?

Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and endorsements. Polling data and voter sentiment also play critical roles in shaping market expectations.

How does the Republican nomination process work in Florida?

Florida's Republican primary typically involves a winner-takes-all approach, where the candidate with the most votes secures all delegates. This system heightens competition among candidates as they vie for maximum voter support.

What is the significance of the FL-19 seat in the broader election context?

FL-19 is considered a key district that could sway control in the House of Representatives. Winning this seat may provide the Republican Party with a strategic advantage in legislative initiatives.

What is "Who will be the Republican nominee for FL-19?" and why does it matter?

Who will be the Republican nominee for FL-19 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Catalina Lauf leads at 40% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Madison Cawthorn at 12%, Jim Oberweis at 10%, Spencer Roach at 5%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will be the Republican nominee for FL-19?"?

Catalina Lauf currently leads at 40% implied probability. Behind Catalina Lauf, Madison Cawthorn at 12% and Jim Oberweis at 10% and Spencer Roach at 5% are the next closest contenders. The 5.2% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Automate This Market

Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Who will be the Republican nominee for FL-19?” event. All for free.

As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et

Used by builders and traders in our 2.5K+ Discord community

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oraclernc.orgConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread

Market Rulebook: Who will be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Madison Cawthorn wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 FL-19 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oraclernc.orgConsensus of Sources
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

About Spencer Roach

Spencer Roach is a former member of the Florida House of Representatives, having served District 76 from 2018 to 2024. Prior to his legislative career, he served as a judge advocate in the U.S. Coast Guard from 1996 to 2016. His decision not to seek re-election in 2024 has opened the field for new candidates in the upcoming FL-19 Republican primary.
5.2%
Platforms2
Candidates5
Leader

Catalina Lauf

40.3% avg