Live prediction market odds for Who will be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-01
This market resolved on 2026-05-01. Don Tracy was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois in 2026. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in the Senate and reflect broader trends in voter sentiment leading up to the election.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Don TracyWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Casey Chlebek | 1% | 50% |
Doug Bennett | 1% | 50% |
John Goodman |
Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and endorsements. Additionally, shifts in voter demographics and national political trends can impact the market.
Prediction markets aggregate the collective opinions of participants, reflecting their expectations based on available information. Prices fluctuate as new data emerges, such as polling results or candidate announcements.
The primary election is scheduled for May 1, 2026. This date is crucial as it will determine which candidate represents the Republican Party in the general election.
Who will be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois in 2026 was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Don Tracy led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Casey Chlebek at 26%, Doug Bennett at 26%, John Goodman at 26%.
Don Tracy held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Don Tracy, Casey Chlebek at 26% and Doug Bennett at 26% and John Goodman at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf John Goodman wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Illinois Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Illinois. If no 2026 Illinois Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Illinois Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
| 50% |
Don Tracy
99.5% avg
