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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 99.5% // +$9950.00

Live prediction market odds for Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?

2026-12-31

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the selection of Trump's next Director of National Intelligence. This appointment is crucial as it will influence national security policies and intelligence operations during a pivotal time in U.S. politics.

Derek Harvey leads the “Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence” event at 48.9% implied probability. Other contenders include Sebastian Gorka (48.2%), Aaron Lukas (52.8%), Mike Flynn (48.4%), and Tom Cotton (47.9%). A 99.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
DH
Derek HarveyARB
49% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket99¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%1¢1¢99¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
97.0%95¢99¢1¢5¢
SG
Sebastian GorkaARB
49% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket99¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%1¢1¢99¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
96.0%93¢99¢1¢7¢
AL
Aaron LukasARB
53% Avg
Kalshi17¢
Polymarket90¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
16.5%16¢17¢83¢84¢
PolymarketPolymarket
88.5%87¢90¢10¢13¢
MF
Mike FlynnARB
49% Avg
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket98¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
2.5%2¢3¢97¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
94.5%91¢98¢2¢9¢
TC
Tom CottonARB
48% Avg
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket96¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.5%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
94.5%93¢96¢4¢7¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Aaron Lukas

Aaron Lukas is the Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence in the Trump Administration. He previously served as Deputy Senior Director for Europe and Russia at the National Security Council. Lukas has over two decades of experience in intelligence and national security, including roles at the CIA and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

About Elise Stefanik

Elise Stefanik is the Chairwoman of House Republican Leadership, representing New York's 21st District in her sixth term. She previously served as Chair of the House Republican Conference from 2021 to 2025. Her extensive experience in national security and intelligence oversight makes her a key figure in discussions about the Director of National Intelligence.

About Devin Nunes

Devin Nunes is the Chair of the President's Intelligence Advisory Board. He served as the U.S. Representative for California's 21st and 22nd congressional districts from 2003 to 2022. Nunes has a longstanding career in intelligence oversight, including his tenure as Chair of the House Intelligence Committee from 2015 to 2019.

Frequently Asked Questions

What role does the Director of National Intelligence play?

The Director of National Intelligence oversees the U.S. intelligence community and coordinates intelligence efforts across various agencies. This position is vital for national security and informs key policy decisions.

How does the selection process for this position work?

The President nominates a candidate for the Director of National Intelligence, who must then be confirmed by the Senate. This process involves hearings and discussions regarding the nominee's qualifications and vision for the intelligence community.

What factors influence the odds in this prediction market?

Odds are influenced by political dynamics, potential candidates' public profiles, and their connections within the administration. Additionally, shifts in public opinion and upcoming elections can impact the likelihood of certain individuals being nominated.

What is "Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?" and why does it matter?

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Derek Harvey leads at 49% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Sebastian Gorka at 48%, Aaron Lukas at 53%, Mike Flynn at 48%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?"?

Derek Harvey currently leads at 49% implied probability. Behind Derek Harvey, Sebastian Gorka at 48% and Aaron Lukas at 53% and Mike Flynn at 48% are the next closest contenders. The 99.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread99.5%
Platforms2
Candidates16
Leader

Derek Harvey

48.9% avg

Market Rulebook: Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the first new person to be Director of National Intelligence is Aaron Lukas before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

Acting and Interim holders of the office are not included in the Payout Criterion. Persons confirmed by the Senate to be that position, or appointed via a “recess appointment” are included, even if that recess appointment is later struck down as illegal.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
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