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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 19.0% // +$1900.00

Live prediction market odds for Who will be UFC Featherweight champion at the end of 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Who will be UFC Featherweight champion at the end of 2026?

2026-12-31

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who will hold the UFC Featherweight championship at the end of 2026. This event is pivotal as it reflects the evolving dynamics of fighter performance, injuries, and match outcomes in the highly competitive UFC landscape.

Movsar Evloev leads the “Who will be UFC Featherweight champion at the end of 2026” event at 50.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Alexander Volkanovski (42.5%), Aljamain Sterling (10.5%), Yair Rodriguez (5.5%), and Jean Silva (4.0%). A 19.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
ME
Movsar Evloev
48% Avg
Kalshi57¢
Polymarket53¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
49.5%42¢57¢43¢58¢
PolymarketPolymarket
45.5%38¢53¢47¢62¢
AV
Alexander Volkanovski
45% Avg
Kalshi56¢
Polymarket59¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
46.0%36¢56¢44¢64¢
PolymarketPolymarket
43.0%27¢59¢41¢73¢
AS
Aljamain SterlingARB
22% Avg
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket60¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
3.0%1¢5¢95¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
40.0%20¢60¢40¢80¢
YR
Yair RodriguezARB
20% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket70¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
40.0%10¢70¢30¢90¢
JS
Jean Silva
6% Avg
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
7.5%5¢10¢90¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.0%1¢7¢93¢99¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Movsar Evloev

Movsar Evloev is a Russian professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's Featherweight division. He is scheduled to face Lerone Murphy in a title eliminator bout on March 21, 2026, at UFC Fight Night 270. This fight is pivotal in determining the next contender for the UFC Featherweight Championship.

About Alexander Volkanovski

Alexander Volkanovski is the current UFC Featherweight Champion, holding a record of 27 wins and 4 losses. He regained the title by defeating Diego Lopes at UFC 314 in April 2025 and successfully defended it in a rematch at UFC 325 in January 2026. His ongoing dominance in the featherweight division makes him a strong contender to retain the championship through the end of 2026.

About Jean Silva

Jean Silva is a Brazilian mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's Featherweight division. He gained prominence with a first-round knockout victory over Westin Wilson in his UFC debut on January 13, 2024. Silva's dynamic fighting style and rapid ascent in the rankings make him a strong contender for the Featherweight championship by the end of 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the UFC Featherweight champion market?

Odds are influenced by fighter performance, injury reports, and upcoming match schedules. Additionally, public sentiment and expert analysis can sway market perceptions.

How often do the odds change for this championship market?

Odds can change frequently, especially following major fights or announcements. Significant events, such as title defenses or injuries, often trigger immediate adjustments.

What is the significance of the UFC Featherweight championship?

The UFC Featherweight championship represents the pinnacle of achievement in the division, showcasing the best fighters. Holding this title can greatly impact a fighter's career trajectory and marketability.

What is "Who will be UFC Featherweight champion at the end of 2026?" and why does it matter?

Who will be UFC Featherweight champion at the end of 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Movsar Evloev leads at 51% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Alexander Volkanovski at 43%, Aljamain Sterling at 11%, Yair Rodriguez at 6%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will be UFC Featherweight champion at the end of 2026?"?

Movsar Evloev currently leads at 51% implied probability. Behind Movsar Evloev, Alexander Volkanovski at 43% and Aljamain Sterling at 11% and Yair Rodriguez at 6% are the next closest contenders. The 19.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
ESPN
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracleufc.com
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread19.0%
Platforms2
Candidates9

Market Rulebook: Who will be UFC Featherweight champion at the end of 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Lerone Murphy is the UFC Featherweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
ESPN
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Featherweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracleufc.com
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

About Lerone Murphy

Lerone Murphy is a professional mixed martial artist competing in the UFC's Featherweight division. He is scheduled to face Movsar Evloev in a title eliminator bout on March 21, 2026, at UFC Fight Night 270. Murphy's recent victories, including a knockout win over Aaron Pico in August 2025, have positioned him as a leading contender for the Featherweight championship.
Leader

Movsar Evloev

50.5% avg