What are the current odds for "Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms?" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: James Talarico - TX-Sen: 82¢ on Kalshi, 84¢ on Polymarket. Dan Osborn - NE-Sen: 34¢ on Kalshi, 43¢ on Polymarket. Dan Osborn - NE-Sen: 34¢ on Kalshi, 43¢ on Polymarket. Zach Wahls - IA-Sen: 9¢ on Kalshi, 26¢ on Polymarket. The 17.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that James Talarico - TX-Sen is at 83%?

A price of 83¢ means the market estimates a 83% probability that James Talarico - TX-Sen will be the outcome. Buying one share at 83¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 20% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms?

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About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking who Bernie Sanders will endorse before the midterms. His endorsement could significantly influence voter turnout and campaign momentum for the candidates involved, impacting election outcomes in key races.

James Talarico - TX-Sen leads the “Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms” event at 83.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Dan Osborn - NE-Sen (38.3%), Zach Wahls - IA-Sen (17.0%), Antonio Delgado - NY-Gov (6.8%), and Alan Grayson - FL-Sen (5.7%). A 17.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

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Live Markets

2 platforms

James Talarico - TX-Sen

85% Avg

89¢

85¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	85.5%	82¢	89¢	11¢	18¢
Polymarket	84.5%	84¢	85¢	15¢	16¢

Dan Osborn - NE-Sen

38% Avg

38¢

55¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	34.0%	30¢	38¢	62¢	70¢
Polymarket	42.5%	30¢	55¢	45¢	70¢

Dan Osborn - NE-Sen

38% Avg

38¢

55¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	34.0%	30¢	38¢	62¢	70¢
Polymarket	42.5%	30¢	55¢	45¢	70¢

Zach Wahls - IA-Sen

15% Avg

9¢

49¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	5.0%	1¢	9¢	92¢	99¢
Polymarket	25.5%	2¢	49¢	51¢	98¢

Zach Wahls - IA-Sen

15% Avg

9¢

49¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	5.0%	1¢	9¢	92¢	99¢
Polymarket	25.5%	2¢	49¢	51¢	98¢

Candidate Spotlight

About James Talarico - TX-Sen

James Talarico is the Democratic nominee for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas. He previously served as a member of the Texas House of Representatives from 2018 to 2026. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is a potential recipient of Bernie Sanders' endorsement before the midterms.

About Dan Osborn - NE-Sen

Dan Osborn is an independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in Nebraska, challenging incumbent Republican Senator Pete Ricketts in the 2026 election. He previously ran as an independent in the 2024 Senate race against Senator Deb Fischer, securing 47% of the vote. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is a notable independent contender in Nebraska's upcoming Senate race.

About Dan Osborn - NE-Sen

Dan Osborn is an independent candidate for the U.S. Senate from Nebraska. He previously led a successful strike at Omaha's Kellogg's plant in 2021. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he is a potential contender in the upcoming Senate race.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does Bernie Sanders' endorsement matter?

Bernie Sanders has a strong following among progressive voters, and his endorsement can sway public opinion and mobilize support for candidates. This influence is particularly crucial in tight races where every vote counts.

What factors could affect Sanders' endorsement decision?

Sanders' endorsement may depend on candidates' alignment with his progressive values, polling data, and the political climate leading up to the midterms. Additionally, the candidates' ability to resonate with his base will play a significant role.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment about endorsements?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants, reflecting their expectations about future events like endorsements. As new information emerges, such as candidate performances or public statements, odds can shift rapidly to align with perceived probabilities.

What is "Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms?" and why does it matter?

Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). James Talarico - TX-Sen leads at 83% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Dan Osborn - NE-Sen at 38%, Dan Osborn - NE-Sen at 38%, Zach Wahls - IA-Sen at 17%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms?"?

James Talarico - TX-Sen currently leads at 83% implied probability. Behind James Talarico - TX-Sen, Dan Osborn - NE-Sen at 38% and Dan Osborn - NE-Sen at 38% and Zach Wahls - IA-Sen at 17% are the next closest contenders. The 17.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About James Talarico - TX-Sen

About Dan Osborn - NE-Sen

About Dan Osborn - NE-Sen

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms?

About Zach Wahls - IA-Sen

About Zach Wahls - IA-Sen

About Antonio Delgado - NY-Gov

About Antonio Delgado - NY-Gov

About Alan Grayson - FL-Sen

About Alan Grayson - FL-Sen