Live prediction market odds for Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?. Compare prices across Polymarket and PredictIt.
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Polymarket / PredictIt
2026-12-31
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking who will leave Trump's Cabinet next. Changes in Cabinet positions can impact policy direction and influence the political landscape leading up to the 2026 elections.
Kristi Noem is priced at 99.5% implied probability for the “Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next” event. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread.
Cabinet members may leave due to personal decisions, political pressure, or shifts in administration priorities. Public opinion and upcoming elections can also play a role in these changes.
Cabinet turnover varies by administration, but it is common for several members to leave during a president's term. Factors such as scandals, policy disagreements, or new appointments can drive these changes.
Cabinet changes can signal shifts in policy direction and priorities for the administration. They may also affect the overall stability and effectiveness of the government as it navigates legislative challenges.
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, PredictIt). Kristi Noem leads at 100% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Kristi Noem currently leads at 100% implied probability. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
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Kristi Noem
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Polymarket.
PolymarketThis market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
