Live prediction market odds for Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
2026-12-31
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking who Trump will nominate as the next Fed Chair. This decision could significantly influence U.S. monetary policy and market stability, impacting interest rates and economic growth.
Kevin Warsh leads the “Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair” event at 99.3% implied probability. Other contenders include James Bullard (2.4%), and Judy Shelton (1.0%). A 2.8% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include Trump's political strategy, the current economic climate, and the candidates' alignment with his policies. Market reactions to economic data and public sentiment may also play a role.
The Fed Chair's policies directly affect interest rates, inflation, and overall economic growth. A change in leadership can lead to shifts in monetary policy that influence financial markets.
The nomination process typically begins several months before the current Chair's term ends. The Senate must confirm the nominee, which can take additional time depending on political dynamics.
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Kevin Warsh leads at 99% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include James Bullard at 2%, Judy Shelton at 1%.
Kevin Warsh currently leads at 99% implied probability. Behind Kevin Warsh, James Bullard at 2% and Judy Shelton at 1% are the next closest contenders. A 2.8% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Kevin Warsh is the first person formally nominated by the President to Fed Chair before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kevin Warsh
99.3% avg
