Live prediction market odds for Who will Trump talk to in January. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-31
This market resolved on 2026-01-31. Keir Starmer was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Keir StarmerWINNER | 99% | 100% |
María Corina Machado | 99% | 100% |
Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 99% | 100% |
Jensen Huang | 88% | 100% |
Emmanuel Macron | 23% | 100% |
Vladimir Putin | 73% | 0% |
Jerome Powell | 1% | 50% |
Pope Leo XIV | 1% | 50% |
Xi Jinping | 1% | 50% |
Who will Trump talk to in January was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Keir Starmer led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include María Corina Machado at 100%, Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 100%, Jensen Huang at 94%.
Keir Starmer held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Keir Starmer, María Corina Machado at 100% and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 100% and Jensen Huang at 94% were the next closest contenders. The 77.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Keir Starmer: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. María Corina Machado: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Volodymyr Zelenskyy: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Jensen Huang: 88¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. The 77.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Keir Starmer would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Keir Starmer
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet (including phone calls) before Feb 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
A meeting is defined as: an in-person encounter where both parties are physically present in the same location, a virtual meeting via video conference where both parties can see and hear each other in real-time, a phone call where both parties speak directly to each other, or any combination of the above where the parties interact directly in real-time. The following qualify as meetings (though this list is not exhaustive): formal bilateral meetings, summits, or conferences, informal encounters at multilateral events if documented by Source Agencies, working dinners, lunches, or other meal meetings, pull-aside meetings or corridor conversations if documented, and home visits or meetings at non-official locations. The following do NOT qualify as meetings: being present at the same event without direct interaction, exchanging written correspondence, communication through intermediaries without direct contact, pre-recorded messages or asynchronous communication, meetings cancelled after being scheduled, or near-misses where parties were scheduled to meet but did not.
