Question 1

When is the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election scheduled?

Accepted Answer

The election is set for October 5, 2026. This date is significant as it will determine the composition of the National Assembly for the following term.

Question 2

What factors could influence the odds in this election?

Accepted Answer

Polling data, party platforms, and candidate popularity will play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, current events and public sentiment leading up to the election may also impact predictions.

Question 3

Why is the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election important?

Accepted Answer

This election will determine the governing party in Quebec, affecting local policies on key issues such as healthcare, education, and climate change. The results could also influence national politics and interprovincial relations.

Question 4

What is "Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). PQ leads at 56% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include PLQ at 33%, CAQ at 10%, PCQ at 1%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?"?

Accepted Answer

PQ currently leads at 56% implied probability. Behind PQ, PLQ at 33% and CAQ at 10% and PCQ at 1% are the next closest contenders. The 8.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: PQ: 56¢ on Kalshi, 56¢ on Polymarket. PLQ: 29¢ on Kalshi, 37¢ on Polymarket. CAQ: 13¢ on Kalshi, 8¢ on Polymarket. PCQ: 1¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. The 8.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that PQ is at 56%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 56¢ means the market estimates a 56% probability that PQ will be the outcome. Buying one share at 56¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 79% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	57.5%	56¢	59¢	41¢	44¢
Polymarket	56.0%	55¢	57¢	43¢	45¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	31.5%	29¢	34¢	66¢	71¢
Polymarket	37.0%	35¢	39¢	61¢	65¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	11.5%	10¢	13¢	87¢	90¢
Polymarket	7.5%	6¢	9¢	91¢	94¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	0.0%	0¢	0¢	100¢	100¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	0.0%	0¢	0¢	100¢	100¢

Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?

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