Live prediction market odds for Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-10-05
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election. The outcome will influence provincial policies and party dynamics, making it a critical event in Quebec's political landscape.
PQ leads the “Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election” event at 60.3% implied probability. Other contenders include PLQ (26.0%), CAQ (13.3%), PCQ (0.8%), and QS (0.6%). A 5.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
The election is set for October 5, 2026. This date is significant as it will determine the composition of the National Assembly for the following term.
Polling data, party platforms, and candidate popularity will play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, current events and public sentiment leading up to the election may also impact predictions.
This election will determine the governing party in Quebec, affecting local policies on key issues such as healthcare, education, and climate change. The results could also influence national politics and interprovincial relations.
Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). PQ leads at 60% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include PLQ at 26%, CAQ at 13%, PCQ at 1%.
PQ currently leads at 60% implied probability. Behind PQ, PLQ at 26% and CAQ at 13% and PCQ at 1% are the next closest contenders. The 5.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
PQ
60.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the CAQ wins the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.
For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.
PolymarketParliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
