What are the current odds for "Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion: Éric Zemmour: 1¢ on Kalshi, 90¢ on Polymarket. François Ruffin: 2¢ on Kalshi, 80¢ on Polymarket. Bernard Cazeneuve: 1¢ on Kalshi, 80¢ on Polymarket. Valérie Pécresse: 1¢ on Kalshi, 80¢ on Polymarket. The 89.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Éric Zemmour is at 46%?

A price of 46¢ means the market estimates a 46% probability that Éric Zemmour will be the outcome. Buying one share at 46¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 117% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? | Live Odds Comparison

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About This Market

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the 2027 French presidential election. The outcome will influence France's domestic policies and its role in the European Union, making it a focal point for political analysts and voters alike.

Éric Zemmour leads the “Who will win the 2027 French presidential election” event at 45.5% implied probability. Other contenders include François Ruffin (41.0%), Bernard Cazeneuve (40.5%), Valérie Pécresse (40.5%), and Élisabeth Borne (35.5%). A 89.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

No price history available

Live Markets

3 platforms

ÉZ

Éric ZemmourARB

43% Avg

1¢

90¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	85.0%	80¢	90¢	10¢	20¢

François RuffinARB

44% Avg

3¢

90¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.0%	1¢	3¢	97¢	99¢
Polymarket	85.0%	80¢	90¢	10¢	20¢

Bernard CazeneuveARB

43% Avg

2¢

90¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.0%	0¢	2¢	98¢	100¢
Polymarket	85.0%	80¢	90¢	10¢	20¢

Valérie PécresseARB

38% Avg

1¢

80¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	75.0%	70¢	80¢	20¢	30¢

ÉB

Élisabeth BorneARB

33% Avg

1¢

70¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	65.0%	60¢	70¢	30¢	40¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Jordan Bardella

Jordan Bardella is the president of the National Rally (RN) party and a Member of the European Parliament (MEP). He led the RN's list in the 2019 European elections and became party president in November 2022. Bardella is a key figure in the RN's strategy for the 2027 French presidential election.

About Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe is the current Mayor of Le Havre and leader of the Horizons party. He served as Prime Minister of France from 2017 to 2020. He is a declared candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.

About Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen is the leader of France's far-right National Rally party. She was convicted in 2025 for embezzling European Union funds, resulting in a five-year ban from public office. This conviction precludes her from participating in the 2027 French presidential election.

About Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the key issues in the 2027 French presidential election?

Key issues include the economy, immigration, and France's position within the EU. Candidates are expected to address public concerns over security and social welfare.

How does the French presidential election process work?

The French presidential election involves a two-round system where a candidate must secure a majority to win. If no candidate achieves this in the first round, a runoff occurs between the top two candidates.

What factors could influence the odds in this election?

Factors include polling data, candidate debates, and public sentiment leading up to the election. Economic conditions and international events may also sway voter preferences.

What is "Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?" and why does it matter?

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion). Éric Zemmour leads at 46% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include François Ruffin at 41%, Bernard Cazeneuve at 41%, Valérie Pécresse at 41%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?"?

Éric Zemmour currently leads at 46% implied probability. Behind Éric Zemmour, François Ruffin at 41% and Bernard Cazeneuve at 41% and Valérie Pécresse at 41% are the next closest contenders. The 89.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Kalshi

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Market Rulebook: Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles

ABC Axios CBS CNN Fox News MSNBC Politico Reuters Semafor The Information The New York Times The Wall Street Journal The Washington Post

Opinion

Primary Rule

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Resolution Oracles

Opinion AI interieur.gouv.fr

Polymarket

Primary Rule

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oracleinterieur.gouv.frConsensus of Sources

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Jordan Bardella

About Édouard Philippe

About Marine Le Pen

About Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

About Dominique de Villepin

About Gabriel Attal

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