What are the current odds for "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Jacob Tsimerman: 61¢ on Kalshi, 88¢ on Polymarket. Hong Wang: 65¢ on Kalshi, 49¢ on Polymarket. Jack Thorne: 53¢ on Kalshi, 56¢ on Polymarket. Yu Deng: 44¢ on Kalshi, 40¢ on Polymarket. The 31.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Jacob Tsimerman is at 75%?

A price of 75¢ means the market estimates a 75% probability that Jacob Tsimerman will be the outcome. Buying one share at 75¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 33% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? Odds

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About This Market

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the 2026 Fields Medal. This prestigious award in mathematics highlights groundbreaking research and achievements, influencing the careers of top mathematicians and the future of the field.

Jacob Tsimerman leads the “Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026” event at 74.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Hong Wang (56.8%), Jack Thorne (54.4%), Yu Deng (42.0%), and John Pardon (38.0%). A 31.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

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Live Markets

2 platforms

Jacob Tsimerman

67% Avg

70¢

88¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	60.0%	50¢	70¢	30¢	50¢
Polymarket	73.0%	58¢	88¢	12¢	42¢

Hong Wang

57% Avg

73¢

60¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	65.0%	57¢	73¢	27¢	43¢
Polymarket	48.5%	37¢	60¢	40¢	63¢

Jack Thorne

54% Avg

58¢

56¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	53.0%	48¢	58¢	42¢	52¢
Polymarket	55.5%	55¢	56¢	44¢	45¢

Yu DengARB

41% Avg

46¢

40¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	44.0%	42¢	46¢	54¢	58¢
Polymarket	37.5%	35¢	40¢	60¢	65¢

John Pardon

36% Avg

43¢

35¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	38.5%	34¢	43¢	57¢	66¢
Polymarket	33.0%	31¢	35¢	65¢	69¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Jacob Tsimerman

Jacob Tsimerman is a full professor in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Toronto. He is renowned for resolving the André-Oort and Griffiths conjectures, significant milestones in modern mathematics. His groundbreaking work in transcendence theory, analytic number theory, and arithmetic geometry makes him a strong contender for the 2026 Fields Medal.

About Hong Wang

Hong Wang is a full professor of mathematics at New York University's Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and the Institut des Hautes Études Scientifiques in France. She gained prominence by solving the three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture, a century-old problem in geometric measure theory. Her groundbreaking work has positioned her as a leading contender for the 2026 Fields Medal.

About Jack Thorne

Jack Thorne is a professor in the Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics at the University of Cambridge. He earned his PhD from Harvard University in 2012 and was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society in 2020. His significant contributions to algebraic number theory and the Langlands program make him a strong candidate for the 2026 Fields Medal.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Fields Medal?

The Fields Medal is awarded every four years to mathematicians under 40 in recognition of outstanding achievements. It is often regarded as the highest honor in mathematics.

Why is the 2026 Fields Medal significant?

The 2026 Fields Medal will recognize contributions made during a pivotal period in mathematics, potentially influencing future research directions. The award can significantly enhance the recipient's visibility and career opportunities.

How do prediction markets work for events like the Fields Medal?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events, with prices reflecting the perceived probabilities of various outcomes. These markets aggregate diverse opinions, providing insights into likely winners based on current trends and expert analysis.

What is "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Jacob Tsimerman leads at 75% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Hong Wang at 57%, Jack Thorne at 54%, Yu Deng at 42%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?"?

Jacob Tsimerman currently leads at 75% implied probability. Behind Jacob Tsimerman, Hong Wang at 57% and Jack Thorne at 54% and Yu Deng at 42% are the next closest contenders. The 31.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Jacob Tsimerman

About Hong Wang

About Jack Thorne

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

About Yu Deng

About John Pardon

About Will Sawin

About Sam Raskin

About Alexander Efimov

About Julian Sahasrabudhe

About Aleksandr Logunov