What are the current odds for "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Hong Wang: 84¢ on Kalshi, 80¢ on Polymarket. Jacob Tsimerman: 57¢ on Kalshi, 58¢ on Polymarket. Yu Deng: 56¢ on Kalshi, 46¢ on Polymarket. Jack Thorne: 44¢ on Kalshi, 48¢ on Polymarket. The 24.1% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Hong Wang is at 82%?

A price of 82¢ means the market estimates a 82% probability that Hong Wang will be the outcome. Buying one share at 82¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 22% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? | Live Odds Comparison

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About This Market

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the 2026 Fields Medal. This prestigious award in mathematics highlights groundbreaking research and achievements, influencing the careers of top mathematicians and the future of the field.

Hong Wang leads the “Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026” event at 81.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Jacob Tsimerman (57.3%), Yu Deng (50.5%), Jack Thorne (45.6%), and John Pardon (36.3%). A 24.1% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

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Live Markets

2 platforms

Hong Wang

82% Avg

86¢

84¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	83.5%	81¢	86¢	14¢	19¢
Polymarket	79.5%	75¢	84¢	16¢	25¢

Jacob Tsimerman

56% Avg

57¢

65¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	53.5%	50¢	57¢	43¢	50¢
Polymarket	57.5%	50¢	65¢	35¢	50¢

Yu Deng

49% Avg

56¢

48¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	52.0%	48¢	56¢	44¢	52¢
Polymarket	45.5%	43¢	48¢	52¢	57¢

Jack Thorne

46% Avg

47¢

51¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	44.0%	41¢	47¢	53¢	60¢
Polymarket	47.5%	44¢	51¢	49¢	56¢

John Pardon

38% Avg

42¢

43¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	39.0%	36¢	42¢	59¢	64¢
Polymarket	37.0%	31¢	43¢	57¢	69¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Hong Wang

Hong Wang is a full professor of mathematics at New York University's Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and the Institut des Hautes Études Scientifiques in France. She gained prominence by solving the three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture, a century-old problem in geometric measure theory. Her groundbreaking work has positioned her as a leading contender for the 2026 Fields Medal.

About Jacob Tsimerman

Jacob Tsimerman is a full professor in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Toronto. He is renowned for resolving the André-Oort and Griffiths conjectures, significant milestones in modern mathematics. His groundbreaking work in transcendence theory, analytic number theory, and arithmetic geometry makes him a strong contender for the 2026 Fields Medal.

About Yu Deng

Yu Deng is a professor of mathematics at the University of Chicago. He earned his Ph.D. from Princeton University in 2015 under Alexandru Ionescu. His research focuses on partial differential equations and mathematical physics, including deriving the Boltzmann equation from hard sphere dynamics.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Fields Medal?

The Fields Medal is awarded every four years to mathematicians under 40 in recognition of outstanding achievements. It is often regarded as the highest honor in mathematics.

Why is the 2026 Fields Medal significant?

The 2026 Fields Medal will recognize contributions made during a pivotal period in mathematics, potentially influencing future research directions. The award can significantly enhance the recipient's visibility and career opportunities.

How do prediction markets work for events like the Fields Medal?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events, with prices reflecting the perceived probabilities of various outcomes. These markets aggregate diverse opinions, providing insights into likely winners based on current trends and expert analysis.

What is "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Hong Wang leads at 82% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Jacob Tsimerman at 57%, Yu Deng at 51%, Jack Thorne at 46%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?"?

Hong Wang currently leads at 82% implied probability. Behind Hong Wang, Jacob Tsimerman at 57% and Yu Deng at 51% and Jack Thorne at 46% are the next closest contenders. The 24.1% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

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About Hong Wang

About Jacob Tsimerman

About Yu Deng

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Market Rulebook: Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

About Jack Thorne

About John Pardon

About Sam Raskin

About Julian Sahasrabudhe

About Aleksandr Logunov

About Will Sawin

About Alexander Efimov