Prediction Hunt logoPrediction Hunt
MarketsSmart MoneyArbitrageTrendingPaper TradingAPIPricing
Live
Prediction Hunt

Compare prediction market odds across every platform. Find the best prices and track smart money.

Markets

  • Elections
  • Sports
  • Crypto
  • Entertainment
  • US Presidential Election Hub
  • Archive

Tools

  • Trending
  • Arbitrage Scanner
  • Smart Money Feed
  • Calculators
  • News
  • Blog

Community

  • Discord
  • Twitter / X
  • Tools
  • About
  • Affiliate Program
  • API Terms of Service

This information is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always verify resolution criteria and platform rules before trading.

MarketsWhalesArbTrending
ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 79.1% // +$7910.00

Live prediction market odds for Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.

Discord
Follow on X

Kalshi / Polymarket

Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

2026-07-30

About This Market

Share

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the 2026 Fields Medal. This prestigious award in mathematics highlights groundbreaking research and achievements, influencing the careers of top mathematicians and the future of the field.

Yu Deng leads the “Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026” event at 65.8% implied probability. Other contenders include Jacob Tsimerman (58.5%), Hong Wang (53.3%), Alexander Efimov (52.0%), and Jack Thorne (49.5%). A 79.1% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
YD
Yu Deng
66% Avg
Kalshi69¢
Polymarket69¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
68.5%68¢69¢31¢32¢
PolymarketPolymarket
63.5%58¢69¢31¢42¢
JT
Jacob Tsimerman
57% Avg
Kalshi68¢
Polymarket72¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
64.0%60¢68¢32¢40¢
PolymarketPolymarket
49.0%26¢72¢28¢74¢
HW
Hong WangARB
53% Avg
Kalshi83¢
Polymarket27¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
80.5%78¢83¢17¢22¢
PolymarketPolymarket
26.0%25¢27¢73¢75¢
AE
Alexander EfimovARB
50% Avg
Kalshi12¢
Polymarket95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
8.0%4¢12¢88¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
91.5%88¢95¢5¢12¢
JT
Jack Thorne
46% Avg
Kalshi62¢
Polymarket58¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
58.0%54¢62¢38¢46¢
PolymarketPolymarket
33.5%9¢58¢42¢91¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Yu Deng

Yu Deng is a professor of mathematics at the University of Chicago. He earned his Ph.D. from Princeton University in 2015 under Alexandru Ionescu. His research focuses on partial differential equations and mathematical physics, including deriving the Boltzmann equation from hard sphere dynamics.

About Jacob Tsimerman

Jacob Tsimerman is a full professor in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Toronto. He is renowned for resolving the André-Oort and Griffiths conjectures, significant milestones in modern mathematics. His groundbreaking work in transcendence theory, analytic number theory, and arithmetic geometry makes him a strong contender for the 2026 Fields Medal.

About Hong Wang

Hong Wang is a full professor of mathematics at New York University's Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and the Institut des Hautes Études Scientifiques in France. She gained prominence by solving the three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture, a century-old problem in geometric measure theory. Her groundbreaking work has positioned her as a leading contender for the 2026 Fields Medal.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Fields Medal?

The Fields Medal is awarded every four years to mathematicians under 40 in recognition of outstanding achievements. It is often regarded as the highest honor in mathematics.

Why is the 2026 Fields Medal significant?

The 2026 Fields Medal will recognize contributions made during a pivotal period in mathematics, potentially influencing future research directions. The award can significantly enhance the recipient's visibility and career opportunities.

How do prediction markets work for events like the Fields Medal?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events, with prices reflecting the perceived probabilities of various outcomes. These markets aggregate diverse opinions, providing insights into likely winners based on current trends and expert analysis.

What is "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Yu Deng leads at 66% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Jacob Tsimerman at 59%, Hong Wang at 53%, Alexander Efimov at 52%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?"?

Yu Deng currently leads at 66% implied probability. Behind Yu Deng, Jacob Tsimerman at 59% and Hong Wang at 53% and Alexander Efimov at 52% are the next closest contenders. The 79.1% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Automate This Market

Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?” event. All for free.

As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et

Used by builders and traders in our 3K+ Discord community

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
ABCAxiosCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCPoliticoReutersSemaforthe Associated PressThe Information

Market Rulebook: Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Yu Deng wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
ABCAxiosCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCPoliticoReutersSemaforthe Associated PressThe InformationThe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Post
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oraclemathunion.org
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

About Alexander Efimov

Alexander Efimov is a Senior Researcher at the Algebraic Geometry Section of the Steklov Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and a member of the International Laboratory of Mirror Symmetry and Automorphic Forms at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. He received the European Mathematical Society's Prize in 2020 for his contributions to algebraic and categorical geometry, particularly in the theory of homological mirror symmetry. His expertise in algebraic geometry and mirror symmetry makes him a notable candidate for the 2026 Fields Medal.

About Jack Thorne

Jack Thorne is a professor in the Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics at the University of Cambridge. He earned his PhD from Harvard University in 2012 and was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society in 2020. His significant contributions to algebraic number theory and the Langlands program make him a strong candidate for the 2026 Fields Medal.

About Aleksandr Logunov

Aleksandr Logunov is an assistant professor of mathematics at Princeton University. He received the 2021 New Horizons in Mathematics Prize for his work on elliptic equations and nodal geometry. He is a candidate in the 2026 Fields Medal prediction market.

About John Pardon

John Pardon is a professor at Stony Brook University and a permanent member of the Simons Center for Geometry and Physics. He gained prominence by solving Gromov's problem on the distortion of knots, earning the 2012 Morgan Prize. His expertise in geometry and topology makes him a notable contender for the 2026 Fields Medal.

About Sam Raskin

Sam Raskin is the James E. English Professor of Mathematics at Yale University. He led a team that proved a significant portion of the geometric Langlands conjecture, a major achievement in mathematics. His groundbreaking work makes him a strong candidate for the 2026 Fields Medal.

About Julian Sahasrabudhe

Julian Sahasrabudhe is a mathematician at the University of Cambridge. He received the 2025 Adams Prize for his work in discrete mathematics. He is a candidate in the 2026 Fields Medal prediction market.

About Will Sawin

Will Sawin is an associate professor of mathematics at Columbia University. He is recognized for his contributions to number theory and algebraic geometry. His expertise and research make him a notable candidate for the 2026 Fields Medal.
The New York Times
The Wall Street Journal
The Washington Post
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oraclemathunion.org
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread79.1%
Platforms2
Candidates10
Leader

Yu Deng

65.8% avg