What are the current odds for "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Yu Deng: 68¢ on Kalshi, 64¢ on Polymarket. Jacob Tsimerman: 68¢ on Kalshi, 49¢ on Polymarket. Hong Wang: 81¢ on Kalshi, 26¢ on Polymarket. Alexander Efimov: 12¢ on Kalshi, 92¢ on Polymarket. The 79.1% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Yu Deng is at 66%?

A price of 66¢ means the market estimates a 66% probability that Yu Deng will be the outcome. Buying one share at 66¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 52% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 79.1% // +$7910.00

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About This Market

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the 2026 Fields Medal. This prestigious award in mathematics highlights groundbreaking research and achievements, influencing the careers of top mathematicians and the future of the field.

Yu Deng leads the “Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026” event at 65.8% implied probability. Other contenders include Jacob Tsimerman (58.5%), Hong Wang (53.3%), Alexander Efimov (52.0%), and Jack Thorne (49.5%). A 79.1% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

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Live Markets

2 platforms

Yu Deng

66% Avg

69¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	68.5%	68¢	69¢	31¢	32¢
Polymarket	63.5%	58¢	69¢	31¢	42¢

Jacob Tsimerman

57% Avg

68¢

72¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	64.0%	60¢	68¢	32¢	40¢
Polymarket	49.0%	26¢	72¢	28¢	74¢

Hong WangARB

53% Avg

83¢

27¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	80.5%	78¢	83¢	17¢	22¢
Polymarket	26.0%	25¢	27¢	73¢	75¢

Alexander EfimovARB

50% Avg

12¢

95¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	8.0%	4¢	12¢	88¢	96¢
Polymarket	91.5%	88¢	95¢	5¢	12¢

Jack Thorne

46% Avg

62¢

58¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	58.0%	54¢	62¢	38¢	46¢
Polymarket	33.5%	9¢	58¢	42¢	91¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Yu Deng

Yu Deng is a professor of mathematics at the University of Chicago. He earned his Ph.D. from Princeton University in 2015 under Alexandru Ionescu. His research focuses on partial differential equations and mathematical physics, including deriving the Boltzmann equation from hard sphere dynamics.

About Jacob Tsimerman

Jacob Tsimerman is a full professor in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Toronto. He is renowned for resolving the André-Oort and Griffiths conjectures, significant milestones in modern mathematics. His groundbreaking work in transcendence theory, analytic number theory, and arithmetic geometry makes him a strong contender for the 2026 Fields Medal.

About Hong Wang

Hong Wang is a full professor of mathematics at New York University's Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and the Institut des Hautes Études Scientifiques in France. She gained prominence by solving the three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture, a century-old problem in geometric measure theory. Her groundbreaking work has positioned her as a leading contender for the 2026 Fields Medal.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Fields Medal?

The Fields Medal is awarded every four years to mathematicians under 40 in recognition of outstanding achievements. It is often regarded as the highest honor in mathematics.

Why is the 2026 Fields Medal significant?

The 2026 Fields Medal will recognize contributions made during a pivotal period in mathematics, potentially influencing future research directions. The award can significantly enhance the recipient's visibility and career opportunities.

How do prediction markets work for events like the Fields Medal?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events, with prices reflecting the perceived probabilities of various outcomes. These markets aggregate diverse opinions, providing insights into likely winners based on current trends and expert analysis.

What is "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Yu Deng leads at 66% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Jacob Tsimerman at 59%, Hong Wang at 53%, Alexander Efimov at 52%.

What is moving the odds on "Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?"?

Yu Deng currently leads at 66% implied probability. Behind Yu Deng, Jacob Tsimerman at 59% and Hong Wang at 53% and Alexander Efimov at 52% are the next closest contenders. The 79.1% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

About This Market

Price History

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Candidate Spotlight

About Yu Deng

About Jacob Tsimerman

About Hong Wang

Frequently Asked Questions

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Market Rulebook: Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

About Alexander Efimov

About Jack Thorne

About Aleksandr Logunov

About John Pardon

About Sam Raskin

About Julian Sahasrabudhe

About Will Sawin