Live prediction market odds for Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2025-12-31
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record is priced at 26.0% implied probability for the “Will 2025 be the hottest year on record” event. A 48.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Will 2025 be the hottest year on record leads at 26% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record currently leads at 26% implied probability. The 48.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Will 2025 be the hottest year on record: 2¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 48.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 26¢ means the market estimates a 26% probability that Will 2025 be the hottest year on record will be the outcome. Buying one share at 26¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 285% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Will 2025 be the hottest year on record
26.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the unsmoother Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2025 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2024 value and 1.17 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2025, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2026
