Live prediction market odds for Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Opinion.
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Kalshi / Polymarket / Opinion
2026-12-31
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking whether 2026 will be the hottest year ever recorded. This event is significant as it reflects ongoing climate change trends and the impact of human activity on global temperatures.
1 is priced at 26.9% implied probability for the “Will 2026 be the hottest year ever” event. A 19.3% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include greenhouse gas emissions, natural climate variability, and significant weather events. Monitoring global temperature trends and climate policies will also play a role.
Prediction markets use real-time data and participant insights to gauge probabilities. Changes in climate reports and scientific findings can shift market sentiment.
The years 2016 and 2020 are among the hottest on record, providing a benchmark for future temperatures. Ongoing climate change discussions and extreme weather events add urgency to this prediction.
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion). 1 leads at 27% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
1 currently leads at 27% implied probability. The 19.3% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027
OpinionThis market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
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26.9% avg
