Live prediction market odds for Will Base launch a token by ___ ?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion and Predict.fun.
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Polymarket / Opinion / Predict.fun
2026-06-30
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
December 31, 2026 leads the “Will Base launch a token by ___ ” event at 41.8% implied probability, followed by June 30, 2026 at 2.5%. A 38.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Will Base launch a token by ___ is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun). December 31, 2026 leads at 42% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include June 30, 2026 at 1%.
December 31, 2026 currently leads at 42% implied probability. Behind December 31, 2026, June 30, 2026 at 1% are the next closest contenders. The 38.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun: December 31, 2026: 65¢ on Polymarket. June 30, 2026: 1¢ on Polymarket. The 38.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 42¢ means the market estimates a 42% probability that December 31, 2026 will be the outcome. Buying one share at 42¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 138% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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December 31, 2026
41.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Opinion and Predict.fun.
OpinionThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Base officially launches a token on or before the specified deadline at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base (https://x.com/base), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Predict.fun{'description': 'This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.'}
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Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?