Live prediction market odds for Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking whether Democrats will sweep the core four Senate races in the upcoming 2026 elections. The outcome could significantly influence the balance of power in the Senate and shape legislative priorities for the following term.
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races is priced at 68.5% implied probability for the “Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races” event. A 3.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
The core four Senate races refer to key battleground states that are critical for determining control of the Senate. These races are often closely contested and can swing either way based on voter turnout and campaign strategies.
Polling data provides insights into voter preferences and trends leading up to the elections. As new polls are released, they can cause fluctuations in the odds as markets react to perceived changes in voter sentiment.
Factors such as national political climate, candidate popularity, campaign funding, and key issues affecting voters can all influence the outcome. Additionally, events like debates and major news stories can sway public opinion and impact the races.
Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races leads at 69% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races currently leads at 69% implied probability. A 3.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Democrats win the 2026 Senate elections in ALL of the following states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market requires ALL specified candidates/parties/options to win their respective elections for a Yes resolution. If even one loses, the entire market resolves to No. For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. For referenda, the specified option must achieve the required threshold. For indirect elections, the ultimate officeholder matters, not intermediate selectors. Postponed elections remain open until rescheduled or two years from original date. Annulled elections remain open until re-run. Death after election but before taking office still counts as a win. In case of ties, the winner through the jurisdiction's tiebreak mechanism prevails. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races
68.5% avg
