Live prediction market odds for Will Messi, Ronaldo or Neymar Advance Furthest in the World Cup?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
Polymarket / Predict.fun
2026-07-20
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
Lionel Messi leads the “Will Messi, Ronaldo or Neymar Advance Furthest in the World Cup” event at 59.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Neymar Jr (8.9%), and Cristiano Ronaldo (13.8%). A 16.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Will Messi, Ronaldo or Neymar Advance Furthest in the World Cup is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Predict.fun). Lionel Messi leads at 59% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Neymar Jr at 17%, Cristiano Ronaldo at 20%.
Lionel Messi currently leads at 59% implied probability. Behind Lionel Messi, Neymar Jr at 17% and Cristiano Ronaldo at 20% are the next closest contenders. The 16.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Predict.fun: Lionel Messi: 68¢ on Polymarket. Neymar Jr: 17¢ on Polymarket. Cristiano Ronaldo: 20¢ on Polymarket. The 16.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 59¢ means the market estimates a 59% probability that Lionel Messi will be the outcome. Buying one share at 59¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 69% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Will Messi, Ronaldo or Neymar Advance Furthest in the World Cup?” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 3K+ Discord community
Lionel Messi
59.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.funThis market will resolve according to the participating player whose nation advances to the latest stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If multiple players' nations are tied for the furthest stage reached in the tournament, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose nation won the most total games during the main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who recorded the most goal contributions during the main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who received fewer total disciplinary cards during the main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup (each card counts as a singular event, double yellows resulting in red still count as two cards). If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player’s nation to be the furthest to advance in the 2026 FIFA World Cup (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or it cannot be determined which player’s nation advanced the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
