Live prediction market odds for Will Nansen launch a token by ___?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Opinion and Predict.fun.
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Polymarket / Opinion / Predict.fun
2027-01-01
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
December 31, 2026 leads the “Will Nansen launch a token by ___” event at 16.8% implied probability. Other contenders include September 30, 2026 (11.8%), and June 30, 2026 (3.4%). A 3.7% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Will Nansen launch a token by ___ is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun). December 31, 2026 leads at 17% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include September 30, 2026 at 14%, June 30, 2026 at 5%.
December 31, 2026 currently leads at 17% implied probability. Behind December 31, 2026, September 30, 2026 at 14% and June 30, 2026 at 5% are the next closest contenders. The 3.7% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun: December 31, 2026: 17¢ on Polymarket. September 30, 2026: 14¢ on Polymarket. June 30, 2026: 5¢ on Polymarket. The 3.7% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 17¢ means the market estimates a 17% probability that December 31, 2026 will be the outcome. Buying one share at 17¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 488% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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December 31, 2026
16.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Opinion and Predict.fun.
OpinionThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Predict.fun{'description': 'This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n\nCreated At: 2026-03-02T13:30:57.761541821Z'}
