Live prediction market odds for Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2027-12-31
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the competition between OpenAI and Anthropic regarding their initial public offerings. The outcome of this event could influence investor sentiment and the future landscape of AI technology funding.
Anthropic leads the “Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first” event at 74.8% implied probability, followed by OpenAI at 28.3%. A 7.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include financial performance, regulatory approvals, and market conditions. Additionally, strategic decisions by each company's leadership could play a crucial role.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of each company going public first.
An IPO can provide significant capital for growth and expansion, enhancing a company's public profile. It also allows early investors to realize returns on their investments.
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Anthropic leads at 75% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include OpenAI at 28%.
Anthropic currently leads at 75% implied probability. Behind Anthropic, OpenAI at 28% are the next closest contenders. The 7.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Anthropic
74.8% avg
