What are the current odds for "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun: Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026: 11¢ on Kalshi, 9¢ on Polymarket. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026: 11¢ on Kalshi, 9¢ on Polymarket. The 24.7% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026 is at 10%?

A price of 10¢ means the market estimates a 10% probability that Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026 will be the outcome. Buying one share at 10¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 900% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | Live Odds Comparison

Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.

Discord

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask	No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	11.5%	11¢	12¢	88¢	89¢
Polymarket	9.5%	9¢	10¢	91¢	91¢

Platform

Implied %

Yes — Bid / Ask

No — Bid / Ask

Kalshi

11.5%

Polymarket

9.5%

9¢

10¢

91¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask	No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	11.5%	11¢	12¢	88¢	89¢
Polymarket	9.5%	9¢	10¢	91¢	91¢
Opinion	30.0%	1¢	59¢	41¢	99¢
Predict.fun	6.5%	5¢	8¢	92¢	95¢

Platform

Implied %

Yes — Bid / Ask

No — Bid / Ask

Kalshi

11.5%

Polymarket

9.5%

9¢

10¢

91¢

Opinion

30.0%

Predict.fun

6.5%

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Reza Pahlavi?

Reza Pahlavi is the son of the last Shah of Iran and has been an advocate for democratic reforms in Iran. He has been vocal about his vision for a secular and democratic Iran.

What factors could influence Pahlavi's chances of leading Iran?

Factors include public sentiment, political opposition, and international relations, particularly with Western nations. Additionally, internal unrest or changes in the Iranian political landscape could impact his prospects.

Why is the year 2026 significant for Iran's leadership?

The year 2026 marks a potential turning point in Iran's political landscape, coinciding with the end of the current leadership's term. This timeframe may also align with broader regional and global political shifts.

What is "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?" and why does it matter?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 4 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun). Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026 leads at 10% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026 at 10%.

What is moving the odds on "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?"?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026 currently leads at 10% implied probability. Behind Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026, Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026 at 10% are the next closest contenders. The 24.7% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Market Rulebook: Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Reza Pahlavi is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as the head of state or government of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Opinion

Primary Rule

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution Oracles

Opinion AI

Polymarket

Primary Rule

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Predict.fun

Primary Rule

{'description': 'This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nReza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.\n\nIf Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\n\nCreated At: 2026-03-02T13:01:43.495050505Z'}

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?