Live prediction market odds for Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Opinion and Predict.fun.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
Kalshi / Polymarket / Opinion / Predict.fun
2026-12-31
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the question of whether Reza Pahlavi will lead Iran in 2026. This event is significant as it reflects the potential for political change in Iran and the influence of external factors on its leadership dynamics.
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026 is priced at 6.9% implied probability for the “Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026” event. A 3.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Reza Pahlavi is the son of the last Shah of Iran and has been an advocate for democratic reforms in Iran. He has been vocal about his vision for a secular and democratic Iran.
Factors include public sentiment, political opposition, and international relations, particularly with Western nations. Additionally, internal unrest or changes in the Iranian political landscape could impact his prospects.
The year 2026 marks a potential turning point in Iran's political landscape, coinciding with the end of the current leadership's term. This timeframe may also align with broader regional and global political shifts.
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 4 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, Predict.fun). Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026 leads at 7% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026 currently leads at 7% implied probability. A 3.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 3K+ Discord community
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket and Predict.fun.
KalshiIf Reza Pahlavi is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as the head of state or government of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
OpinionThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Predict.fun{'description': 'This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nReza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.\n\nIf Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\n\nCreated At: 2026-03-02T13:01:43.495050505Z'}
OpinionWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026
6.9% avg
