Live prediction market odds for Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by June 30?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
Polymarket / Predict.fun
2026-07-01
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
↓$165B leads the “Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by June 30” event at 48.8% implied probability. Other contenders include ↑$180B (6.4%), ↑$190B (1.3%), ↑$200B (1.3%), and ↑$185B (1.4%). A 49.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by June 30 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Predict.fun). ↓$165B leads at 49% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include ↑$180B at 5%, ↑$190B at 2%, ↑$200B at 2%.
↓$165B currently leads at 49% implied probability. Behind ↓$165B, ↑$180B at 5% and ↑$190B at 2% and ↑$200B at 2% are the next closest contenders. The 49.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Predict.fun: ↓$165B: 74¢ on Polymarket. ↑$180B: 5¢ on Polymarket. ↑$190B: 2¢ on Polymarket. ↑$200B: 2¢ on Polymarket. The 49.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 49¢ means the market estimates a 49% probability that ↓$165B will be the outcome. Buying one share at 49¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 104% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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↓$165B
48.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.funThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Stripe's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
