Live prediction market odds for Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
2026-04-21
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the Virginia redistricting referendum set for April 2026. This referendum could reshape electoral districts, impacting political representation and party dynamics in the state, making it a pivotal issue in upcoming elections.
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass is priced at 78.2% implied probability for Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass. A 7.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
The Virginia redistricting referendum is a proposed measure that seeks to change the boundaries of electoral districts in the state. It aims to address concerns about fair representation and partisan gerrymandering.
The referendum is scheduled for April 21, 2026. This timing coincides with the lead-up to the next election cycle, which could amplify its significance.
This referendum is crucial as it could affect the balance of power in Virginia's legislature. Changes in district boundaries can influence election outcomes and party control.
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass leads at 78% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass currently leads at 78% implied probability. The 7.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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KalshiWill the Virginia redistricting referendum pass
78.2% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf a referendum that allows the state legislature to redraw Virginia's congressional map passes in Virginia before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
A referendum "passes" when it meets ALL of the following conditions: receives the minimum percentage of "Yes" or "For" votes required by the applicable constitution, law, or electoral rules (whether simple majority, supermajority, or other threshold), meets any minimum voter turnout requirements if applicable, and is certified as passed by the official electoral authority.
PolymarketPending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
