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Live prediction market odds for World Cup Group H Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

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Kalshi / Polymarket / Predict.fun

World Cup Group H Winner

2026-06-27

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the World Cup Group H Winner. The outcome will impact team standings and progression in the tournament, making it a focal point for fans and analysts alike.

Spain leads the “World Cup Group H Winner” event at 76.7% implied probability. Other contenders include Uruguay (15.2%), Saudi Arabia (3.0%), and Cape Verde (1.2%). A 4.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

3 platforms
S
SpainARB
77% Avg
Kalshi75¢
Polymarket79¢
Predict.fun80¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
74.0%73¢75¢25¢27¢
PolymarketPolymarket
77.0%75¢79¢21¢25¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
79.0%78¢80¢20¢22¢
U
Uruguay
16% Avg
Kalshi17¢
Polymarket17¢
Predict.fun18¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
16.0%15¢17¢83¢85¢
PolymarketPolymarket
15.5%14¢17¢83¢86¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
15.5%13¢18¢82¢87¢
SA
Saudi Arabia
4% Avg
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket5¢
Predict.fun5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
3.5%3¢4¢96¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.0%3¢5¢95¢98¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
3.5%2¢5¢95¢98¢
CV
Cape VerdeARB
3% Avg
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket1¢
Predict.fun12¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
1.5%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.5%0¢1¢100¢100¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
6.5%1¢12¢88¢99¢

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Group H Winner?

Odds are influenced by team performance in qualifying matches, player injuries, and historical performance in previous tournaments.

How do prediction markets adjust to new information?

Prediction markets adjust in real-time based on news, such as player transfers, match results, and expert analyses, reflecting the latest insights.

What is the significance of winning Group H?

Winning Group H determines which teams advance to the knockout stage, affecting their chances of winning the World Cup and altering matchups.

What is "World Cup Group H Winner" and why does it matter?

World Cup Group H Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun). Spain leads at 77% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Uruguay at 16%, Saudi Arabia at 3%, Cape Verde at 1%.

What is moving the odds on "World Cup Group H Winner"?

Spain currently leads at 77% implied probability. Behind Spain, Uruguay at 16% and Saudi Arabia at 3% and Cape Verde at 1% are the next closest contenders. The 4.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
ESPNFIFA
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oraclefifa.comConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread4.0%

Market Rulebook: World Cup Group H Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Cape Verde finish first in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

If teams are tied on points, the group winner is determined according to the official FIFA World Cup tiebreak criteria.

Resolution Oracles
ESPNFIFA
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oraclefifa.comConsensus of Sources
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

{'description': 'This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.\n\nIf multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.\n\nIf the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nThis market is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by FIFA or any participating teams. Any references to FIFA or related events are for informational purposes only.'}

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Platforms3
Candidates4
Leader

Spain

76.7% avg